TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13001870
Played Aug 25Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11810121113117117
David Szotek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:18 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Szotek to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 101 set 5, 11-7 — our read held David Szotek at 54.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 11–13 David Szotek Michal Chalupa has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:18What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Szotek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1546 vs Szotek 1650
Szotek
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 40% vs Szotek 80%
Szotek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 30% vs Szotek 70%
Szotek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Szotek +3
Szotek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.73 / Szotek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Chalupa)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13001870
Chalupa1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 118 of 224
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it72% 75 of 104
Szotek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa4wins
AwaySzotek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSzotek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa25%1 of 4
AwaySzotek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa4Szotek6n = 10Szotek took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S3Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S5Chalupa1Szotek5n = 6Szotek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaSzotekC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.541.9+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 684 vs 167 / 36151.8%46.3%354 / 684 vs 167 / 361Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.73/Szotek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa—119119112D. Szotek—811611133
LAug 25 · 15:30M. Chalupa—512101382D. Szotek—11101211113
LAug 24 · 14:30M. Chalupa—111111682D. Szotek—713511113
WAug 24 · 13:28M. Chalupa—51111113D. Szotek—118881
LAug 24 · 11:00M. Chalupa—11811862D. Szotek—711711113
LAug 21 · 18:00M. Chalupa—411681D. Szotek—11911103
LAug 19 · 18:30M. Chalupa—121191162D. Szotek—146114113
WAug 19 · 15:00M. Chalupa—111011113D. Szotek—512991
WAug 13 · 19:00M. Chalupa—711911113D. Szotek—11211252
WAug 11 · 17:30M. Chalupa—41111113D. Szotek—117871
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113
D. Szotek10
LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek1.6761181462M. Chalupa2.101191112113LAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100LAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern1.61741412113D. Szotek2.201111121092WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660WAug 25 · 19:30D. Szotek1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.207860WAug 25 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.916690D. Szotek1.801111113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa1.70119119112D. Szotek2.02811611133LAug 25 · 16:00D. Szotek1.5311511682M. Holub2.38911911113WAug 25 · 15:30M. Chalupa1.73512101382D. Szotek2.0011101211113
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