TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13001867
Played Aug 25Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611911––––
David Szotek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 13–8 David Szotek David Szotek has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:19What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Szotek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Pagac
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1611 vs Szotek 1630
Szotek
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 40% vs Szotek 60%
Szotek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 40% vs Szotek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac +1 · Szotek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pagac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 1.91 / Szotek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pagac)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13001867
Pagac1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 111 of 262
Down 0–1, comes back21% 30 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 94
Szotek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 40 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it75% 30 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac8wins
AwaySzotek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac100%4 of 4
AwaySzotek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac4Szotek6n = 10Szotek took 6 of 10
S2Pagac6Szotek4n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S3Pagac9Szotek1n = 10Pagac took 9 of 10
S4Pagac3Szotek4n = 7Szotek took 4 of 7
S5Pagac3Szotek0n = 3Pagac took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacSzotekP − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.033.2+6.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 615 vs 165 / 35948.1%46%296 / 615 vs 165 / 359Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacPagac 1.91/Szotek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 12:00Z. Pagac—1111113D. Szotek—9750
LAug 21 · 21:28Z. Pagac—7950D. Szotek—1111113
WAug 21 · 19:30Z. Pagac—9121110113D. Szotek—111071282
WAug 20 · 15:00Z. Pagac—81111113D. Szotek—116571
WAug 19 · 16:30Z. Pagac—101111893D. Szotek—12691162
LAug 16 · 12:30Z. Pagac—91011141D. Szotek—11128163
WAug 13 · 20:58Z. Pagac—1111113D. Szotek—4680
WAug 13 · 18:30Z. Pagac—11911113D. Szotek—311661
WAug 11 · 14:00Z. Pagac—139111113D. Szotek—111151112
WAug 10 · 15:30Z. Pagac—61111113D. Szotek—113671
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123
D. Szotek10
LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek1.6761181462M. Chalupa2.101191112113LAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100LAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern1.61741412113D. Szotek2.201111121092WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660LAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.7311101111113D. Szotek2.0081213772WAug 25 · 19:30D. Szotek1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.207860WAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa1.70119119112D. Szotek2.02811611133LAug 25 · 16:00D. Szotek1.5311511682M. Holub2.38911911113WAug 25 · 15:30M. Chalupa1.73512101382D. Szotek2.0011101211113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Pagac
Nothing scheduled
D. Szotek
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