TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099223
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9114111412118114
Marek Holub
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Kern above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 95 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Lukas Kern at 63.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 9–6 Marek Holub Marek Holub has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kern
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Kern
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kern 1579 vs Holub 1605
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 60% vs Holub 40%
Kern
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 50% vs Holub 30%
Kern
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern -1 · Holub +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kern) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 1.50 / Holub 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kern)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099223
Kern1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite64% won 74 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Holub2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 75 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKern8wins
AwayHolub2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKern leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern100%7 of 7
AwayHolub66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern7Holub3n = 10Kern took 7 of 10
S2Kern7Holub3n = 10Kern took 7 of 10
S3Kern7Holub3n = 10Kern took 7 of 10
S4Kern3Holub1n = 4Kern took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKernHolubK − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.733.2+3.5per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 256 vs 150 / 31852.3%47.2%134 / 256 vs 150 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernKern 1.50/Holub 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 18:00L. Kern—12117113M. Holub—1081161
WAug 11 · 21:30L. Kern—11911143M. Holub—7119121
WAug 11 · 18:00L. Kern—1114113M. Holub—61260
WAug 8 · 16:30L. Kern—1111113M. Holub—8880
WAug 7 · 17:00L. Kern—741111143M. Holub—111189122
WAug 7 · 15:00L. Kern—1111113M. Holub—5890
LJul 29 · 16:30L. Kern—11870M. Holub—1311113
LJul 24 · 19:30L. Kern—913761M. Holub—111111113
WJul 24 · 15:30L. Kern—1412113M. Holub—121090
WJun 30 · 17:07L. Kern—1111123M. Holub—98100
L. Kern10
LSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112LSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113WSep 9 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.83871181L. Kern1.8311118113WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731
M. Holub10
WSep 9 · 17:30M. Holub2.10151199133L. Kern1.671361111112WSep 9 · 15:30M. Holub2.10991114113R. Hudeczek1.67111161292WSep 9 · 14:30D. Szotek1.611271191M. Holub2.2014119113LSep 7 · 21:00R. Hudeczek1.67113138113M. Holub2.10711111172LSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113LSep 7 · 19:00M. Holub2.20141341162R. Hudeczek1.611611114113LSep 7 · 18:00D. Szotek1.614111311113M. Holub2.2011615842LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133
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