TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099219
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131171012711––
David Szotek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Kern above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 82 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Kern at 56.2%
82 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 5–4 David Szotek David Szotek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kern
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kern 1589 vs Szotek 1628
Szotek
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 60% vs Szotek 40%
Kern
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 60% vs Szotek 40%
Kern
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern +2 · Szotek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kern)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 1.67 / Szotek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kern)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099219
Kern1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 74 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Szotek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 47 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKern5wins
AwaySzotek4wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKern leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern66.7%4 of 6
AwaySzotek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern6Szotek3n = 9Kern took 6 of 9
S2Kern4Szotek5n = 9Szotek took 5 of 9
S3Kern5Szotek4n = 9Kern took 5 of 9
S4Kern3Szotek4n = 7Szotek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKernSzotekK − SBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match37.936.2+1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 255 vs 166 / 35652.6%46.6%134 / 255 vs 166 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernKern 1.67/Szotek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern—741412113D. Szotek—1111121092
WAug 19 · 21:30L. Kern—1111113D. Szotek—5760
WAug 19 · 19:30L. Kern—11511113D. Szotek—211851
WAug 16 · 13:29L. Kern—1311113D. Szotek—11450
LAug 16 · 10:00L. Kern—971191D. Szotek—11117113
LAug 13 · 20:00L. Kern—1112841D. Szotek—131011113
LAug 11 · 16:00L. Kern—11101161D. Szotek—91213113
WJul 30 · 20:58L. Kern—11119113D. Szotek—981191
LJul 30 · 18:00L. Kern—1112761D. Szotek—61411113
L. Kern10
WSep 9 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.83871181L. Kern1.8311118113WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731WSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192WSep 1 · 20:58R. Urbaniec1.4482100L. Kern2.631111123
D. Szotek10
LSep 9 · 14:30D. Szotek1.611271191M. Holub2.2014119113LSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.851111113D. Szotek1.859760WSep 7 · 20:00D. Szotek1.53117148113R. Hudeczek2.38711121192LSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:00D. Szotek1.614111311113M. Holub2.2011615842LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek1.6761181462M. Chalupa2.101191112113LAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100LAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern1.61741412113D. Szotek2.201111121092WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660
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