TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13094909
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
David Szotek
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 54.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 15–15 David Szotek Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chalupa beat Szotek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Szotek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1714 vs Szotek 1642
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 80% vs Szotek 40%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 60% vs Szotek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +3 · Szotek +1
Chalupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.85 / Szotek 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chalupa)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13094909
Chalupa1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Szotek1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa5wins
AwaySzotek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa66.7%4 of 6
AwaySzotek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa3Szotek7n = 10Szotek took 7 of 10
S3Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa4Szotek3n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S5Chalupa2Szotek3n = 5Szotek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaSzotekC − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.440.5+0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 714 vs 166 / 35552.7%46.8%376 / 714 vs 166 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.85/Szotek 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa—1111113D. Szotek—9760
WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa—111111133D. Szotek—9135111
WAug 31 · 13:00M. Chalupa—1191112113D. Szotek—61181462
LAug 31 · 11:30M. Chalupa—98100D. Szotek—1111123
LAug 25 · 21:28M. Chalupa—4660D. Szotek—1111113
WAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa—11101111113D. Szotek—81213772
LAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa—119119112D. Szotek—811611133
LAug 25 · 15:30M. Chalupa—512101382D. Szotek—11101211113
LAug 24 · 14:30M. Chalupa—111111682D. Szotek—713511113
WAug 24 · 13:28M. Chalupa—51111113D. Szotek—118881
M. Chalupa10
WSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.80861171M. Chalupa1.9111118113LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091
D. Szotek10
WSep 7 · 20:00D. Szotek1.53117148113R. Hudeczek2.38711121192LSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:00D. Szotek1.614111311113M. Holub2.2011615842LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek1.6761181462M. Chalupa2.101191112113LAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100LAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern1.61741412113D. Szotek2.201111121092WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660LAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.7311101111113D. Szotek2.0081213772WAug 25 · 19:30D. Szotek1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.207860
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