TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098831
Played Sep 9Finished
Josef Toth
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811115911117411
Ivan Kolenciak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kolenciak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Toth above · Ivan Kolenciak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 88 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Ivan Kolenciak at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Josef Toth 5–6 Ivan Kolenciak Josef Toth has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:20What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kolenciak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Toth 1214 vs Kolenciak 1206
Toth
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Toth 80% vs Kolenciak 60%
Toth
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Toth 60% vs Kolenciak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Toth +1 · Kolenciak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolenciak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Toth form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsToth 1.91 / Kolenciak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolenciak)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098831
Toth1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 30 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back31% 8 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Kolenciak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 24 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeToth5wins
AwayKolenciak5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeToth60%3 of 5
AwayKolenciak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Toth5Kolenciak5n = 10split evenly
S2Toth5Kolenciak5n = 10split evenly
S3Toth4Kolenciak6n = 10Kolenciak took 6 of 10
S4Toth3Kolenciak5n = 8Kolenciak took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTothKolenciakT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.3+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTothKolenciakBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 169 vs 82 / 18046.2%45.6%78 / 169 vs 82 / 180Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolenciakToth 1.91/Kolenciak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolenciak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolenciak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 11:30J. Toth—1112119113I. Kolenciak—51481172
WJul 30 · 06:30J. Toth—11117113I. Kolenciak—421181
LJul 9 · 09:30J. Toth—811781I. Kolenciak—11911113
WJul 9 · 07:00J. Toth—1111113I. Kolenciak—7640
WJun 30 · 08:30J. Toth—911612113I. Kolenciak—116111092
LMay 30 · 14:00J. Toth—991291I. Kolenciak—111110113
LMay 7 · 12:58J. Toth—1165111I. Kolenciak—81111133
WMay 7 · 11:00J. Toth—101113113I. Kolenciak—1251191
LMay 2 · 06:30J. Toth—710130I. Kolenciak—1112153
LApr 5 · 08:59J. Toth—1113751I. Kolenciak—91511113
J. Toth10
WSep 9 · 12:30J. Toth2.101110911123I. Palmi1.67612118102WSep 9 · 10:00Z. Luksa1.36411971J. Toth3.0011511113LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113LAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113WAug 15 · 11:30J. Foltynek2.63791181J. Toth1.4411116113LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth2.00781161I. Palmi1.7311116113
I. Kolenciak10
WSep 9 · 12:00Z. Luksa1.83111191192I. Kolenciak1.83361113113WSep 9 · 10:30I. Kolenciak1.53411812113I. Palmi2.38119111072WSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851WSep 6 · 12:00I. Kolenciak2.00412411113D. Vavrecka1.73111011892LSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781LSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.577111041A. Kanak2.2511712113WAug 7 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.4021111113I. Palmi2.75118641WAug 7 · 12:00I. Kolenciak1.531111113I. Palmi2.388690LAug 7 · 11:30J. Toth1.911112119113I. Kolenciak1.8051481172WAug 7 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.40131012113J. Foltynek2.7511121081
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