TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099169
Played Sep 9Finished
Josef Toth
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11610129111181210
Ivo Palmi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeIvo Palmi to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Toth above · Ivo Palmi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 100 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Ivo Palmi at 56.2%
100 points played in total.
H2H Josef Toth 14–15 Ivo Palmi Josef Toth has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:57What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Palmi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Toth 1204 vs Palmi 1119
Toth
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Toth 60% vs Palmi 40%
Toth
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Toth 50% vs Palmi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Toth -1 · Palmi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Palmi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palmi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsToth 2.10 / Palmi 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Palmi)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099169
Toth2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 30 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back31% 8 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Palmi1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 13 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeToth5wins
AwayPalmi5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeToth83.3%5 of 6
AwayPalmi100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Toth6Palmi4n = 10Toth took 6 of 10
S2Toth5Palmi5n = 10split evenly
S3Toth4Palmi6n = 10Palmi took 6 of 10
S4Toth5Palmi4n = 9Toth took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTothPalmiT − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.8+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTothPalmiBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 170 vs 54 / 13145.9%41.2%78 / 170 vs 54 / 131Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PalmiToth 2.10/Palmi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Palmi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Toth won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth—781161I. Palmi—11116113
LAug 7 · 10:30J. Toth—1110781I. Palmi—51211113
WJun 17 · 13:30J. Toth—11119113I. Palmi—781161
LJun 17 · 12:00J. Toth—31111882I. Palmi—119811113
WMay 30 · 17:00J. Toth—11611113I. Palmi—511951
LMay 30 · 16:30J. Toth—5460I. Palmi—1111113
WMay 17 · 13:00J. Toth—111113113I. Palmi—791541
WMay 17 · 11:00J. Toth—11118113I. Palmi—691151
LSep 25 · 10:30J. Toth—819881I. Palmi—111711113
WSep 24 · 17:05J. Toth—11811113I. Palmi—911631
J. Toth10
LSep 9 · 11:00J. Toth1.9181191142I. Kolenciak1.80115117113WSep 9 · 10:00Z. Luksa1.36411971J. Toth3.0011511113LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113LAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113WAug 15 · 11:30J. Foltynek2.63791181J. Toth1.4411116113LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth2.00781161I. Palmi1.7311116113
I. Palmi10
WSep 9 · 11:30I. Palmi2.001311113Z. Luksa1.7311960LSep 9 · 10:30I. Kolenciak1.53411812113I. Palmi2.38119111072LSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640LSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591WSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781WSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113WAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470WAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113LAug 26 · 15:30I. Palmi1.83611691S. Blabla1.8311811113WAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth2.00781161I. Palmi1.7311116113
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