TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13014132
Played Aug 26Finished
Jiri Foltynek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111191113911––
Ivo Palmi
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:47 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeIvo Palmi to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Foltynek above · Ivo Palmi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 80 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ivo Palmi at 56.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Foltynek 10–14 Ivo Palmi Jiri Foltynek has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Palmi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Palmi
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Foltynek 1126 vs Palmi 1084
Foltynek
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Foltynek 40% vs Palmi 20%
Foltynek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Foltynek 40% vs Palmi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Foltynek -2 · Palmi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Palmi) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palmi form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFoltynek 2.10 / Palmi 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Palmi)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13014132
Foltynek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 22 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back33% 9 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back17% 3 of 18
Palmi1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 11 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFoltynek5wins
AwayPalmi5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFoltynekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPalmi62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Foltynek2Palmi8n = 10Palmi took 8 of 10
S2Foltynek3Palmi7n = 10Palmi took 7 of 10
S3Foltynek6Palmi4n = 10Foltynek took 6 of 10
S4Foltynek4Palmi1n = 5Foltynek took 4 of 5
S5Foltynek2Palmi1n = 3Foltynek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricFoltynekPalmiF − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.837.2−3.4per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFoltynekPalmiBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 146 vs 56 / 13741.1%40.9%60 / 146 vs 56 / 137Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PalmiFoltynek 2.10/Palmi 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Palmi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Palmi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 12:30J. Foltynek—671111113I. Palmi—11119392
LAug 7 · 11:00J. Foltynek—9760I. Palmi—1111113
WJul 17 · 13:30J. Foltynek—121111113I. Palmi—1013891
WJul 17 · 12:30J. Foltynek—7121111113I. Palmi—11148972
WJun 30 · 13:30J. Foltynek—81111113I. Palmi—116981
LJun 30 · 12:00J. Foltynek—7460I. Palmi—1111113
WJun 17 · 10:30J. Foltynek—1211113I. Palmi—10880
LSep 2 · 13:07J. Foltynek—911115112I. Palmi—116711133
LSep 2 · 10:00J. Foltynek—5360I. Palmi—1111113
LJun 28 · 16:58J. Foltynek—6770I. Palmi—1111113
J. Foltynek10
LSep 1 · 13:30J. Foltynek1.3061110121V. Matysek3.4011712143WSep 1 · 12:30J. Foltynek1.331111113V. Matysek3.256860LSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113WSep 1 · 10:00L. Martinec2.2011861172J. Foltynek1.61511118113LAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470LAug 26 · 15:00J. Foltynek1.83711751A. Kanak1.8311811113LAug 26 · 14:00S. Blabla1.831191311113J. Foltynek1.8341115852WAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113WAug 15 · 12:30I. Palmi1.5011119392J. Foltynek2.50671111113LAug 15 · 11:30J. Foltynek2.63791181J. Toth1.4411116113
I. Palmi10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640LSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591WSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781WSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113WAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470LAug 26 · 15:30I. Palmi1.83611691S. Blabla1.8311811113WAug 26 · 14:30A. Kanak1.67911811102I. Palmi2.10116117123LAug 15 · 13:30M. Stolba1.331311108113I. Palmi3.25115121152LAug 15 · 12:30I. Palmi1.5011119392J. Foltynek2.50671111113LAug 15 · 11:00I. Palmi2.50861171M. Stolba1.5011115113
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