TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12434246
Played Aug 15Finished
Jiri Foltynek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911116811––
Josef Toth
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeJosef Toth to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Foltynek above · Josef Toth below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Josef Toth at 68.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Foltynek 12–24 Josef Toth Jiri Foltynek has won 12 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:46What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Toth
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-24 in 36
Toth
Correct
gap of 12 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Foltynek 1126 vs Toth 1174
Toth
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Foltynek 40% vs Toth 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Foltynek 30% vs Toth 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Foltynek -1 · Toth -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Toth)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Toth form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFoltynek 2.63 / Toth 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Toth)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12434246
Foltynek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 21 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Toth1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite36% won 8 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it67% 8 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFoltynek3wins
AwayToth7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderToth leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFoltynek40%2 of 5
AwayToth80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Foltynek5Toth5n = 10split evenly
S2Foltynek3Toth7n = 10Toth took 7 of 10
S3Foltynek2Toth8n = 10Toth took 8 of 10
S4Foltynek2Toth5n = 7Toth took 5 of 7
S5Foltynek2Toth1n = 3Foltynek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFoltynekTothF − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.339.4−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFoltynekTothBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 141 vs 73 / 16141.1%45.3%58 / 141 vs 73 / 161Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TothFoltynek 2.63/Toth 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Toth · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Toth won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 12:59J. Foltynek—117117113J. Toth—91181192
WAug 7 · 12:30J. Foltynek—51111113J. Toth—117981
LJun 17 · 11:30J. Foltynek—9880J. Toth—1111113
LJun 11 · 10:00J. Foltynek—4790J. Toth—1111113
LOct 7 · 13:05J. Foltynek—11451182J. Toth—911113113
WOct 7 · 11:30J. Foltynek—1111210113J. Toth—76111272
LSep 6 · 21:00J. Foltynek—912681J. Toth—111011113
LSep 6 · 20:30J. Foltynek—1151081J. Toth—51112113
LSep 4 · 13:01J. Foltynek—5850J. Toth—1111113
LSep 4 · 11:00J. Foltynek—117771J. Toth—91111113
J. Foltynek10
LSep 1 · 13:30J. Foltynek1.3061110121V. Matysek3.4011712143WSep 1 · 12:30J. Foltynek1.331111113V. Matysek3.256860LSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113WSep 1 · 10:00L. Martinec2.2011861172J. Foltynek1.61511118113LAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470LAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113LAug 26 · 15:00J. Foltynek1.83711751A. Kanak1.8311811113LAug 26 · 14:00S. Blabla1.831191311113J. Foltynek1.8341115852WAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113WAug 15 · 12:30I. Palmi1.5011119392J. Foltynek2.50671111113
J. Toth10
LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113LAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth2.00781161I. Palmi1.7311116113WAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941LAug 10 · 08:30Z. Luksa1.25751111113J. Toth3.7511118672WAug 10 · 07:30J. Toth2.251112310113D. Vavrecka1.57810111292
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