Josef Toth vs Ivo Palmi 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #12434175

Played Aug 15Finished

Josef Toth

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

711811116611––

Ivo Palmi

Away

1.73

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%

Graded at full time

Ivo Palmi to win

56.2%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingJosef Toth above · Ivo Palmi below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 11-6

Set 4 · 6-11

Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ivo Palmi at 56.2%

71 points played in total.

H2H Josef Toth 14–15 Ivo Palmi Josef Toth has won 14 of their 29 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 13:38

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Palmi

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

14-15 in 29

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Toth 1158 vs Palmi 1097

Toth

Wrong

both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Toth 40% vs Palmi 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Toth 40% vs Palmi 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Toth +1 · Palmi -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Palmi) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Palmi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsToth 2.00 / Palmi 1.73

Signal prob.45% / 55%

Edge (Palmi)+1.0pp

Czech Liga Pro · #12434175

Toth2.00

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog48% won 29 of 60

Down 0–1, comes back26% 8 of 31

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15

Palmi1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite48% won 10 of 21

Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8

Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeToth5wins

AwayPalmi5wins

1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeToth83.3%5 of 6

AwayPalmi100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Toth6Palmi4n = 10Toth took 6 of 10

S2Toth5Palmi5n = 10split evenly

S3Toth4Palmi6n = 10Palmi took 6 of 10

S4Toth5Palmi4n = 9Toth took 5 of 9

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home550%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricTothPalmiT − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.8+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricTothPalmiBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 164 vs 57 / 14345.1%39.9%74 / 164 vs 57 / 143Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Palmi

Toth 2.00/Palmi 1.73

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54.7%

Palmi · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Palmi won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth—781161I. Palmi—11116113

LAug 7 · 10:30J. Toth—1110781I. Palmi—51211113

WJun 17 · 13:30J. Toth—11119113I. Palmi—781161

LJun 17 · 12:00J. Toth—31111882I. Palmi—119811113

WMay 30 · 17:00J. Toth—11611113I. Palmi—511951

LMay 30 · 16:30J. Toth—5460I. Palmi—1111113

WMay 17 · 13:00J. Toth—111113113I. Palmi—791541

WMay 17 · 11:00J. Toth—11118113I. Palmi—691151

LSep 25 · 10:30J. Toth—819881I. Palmi—111711113

WSep 24 · 17:05J. Toth—11811113I. Palmi—911631

J. Toth10

LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113 WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113 WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242 WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113 LAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113 LAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113 WAug 15 · 11:30J. Foltynek2.63791181J. Toth1.4411116113 WAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941 LAug 10 · 08:30Z. Luksa1.25751111113J. Toth3.7511118672 WAug 10 · 07:30J. Toth2.251112310113D. Vavrecka1.57810111292

I. Palmi10

LSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640 LSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591 WSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781 WSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113 WAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470 WAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113 LAug 26 · 15:30I. Palmi1.83611691S. Blabla1.8311811113 WAug 26 · 14:30A. Kanak1.67911811102I. Palmi2.10116117123 LAug 15 · 13:30M. Stolba1.331311108113I. Palmi3.25115121152 LAug 15 · 12:30I. Palmi1.5011119392J. Foltynek2.50671111113

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