TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082590
Played Sep 6Finished
Ivo Palmi
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117511117118––
Ivan Kolenciak
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:50 and never touched — 69.2% is still 69.2%
Graded at full timeIvan Kolenciak to win
69.2%
69.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvo Palmi above · Ivan Kolenciak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Kolenciak at 69.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ivo Palmi 6–9 Ivan Kolenciak Ivo Palmi has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:50What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kolenciak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Kolenciak
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palmi 1136 vs Kolenciak 1183
Kolenciak
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palmi 80% vs Kolenciak 60%
Palmi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palmi 50% vs Kolenciak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Palmi +3 · Kolenciak -1
Palmi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kolenciak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenciak form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalmi 3.00 / Kolenciak 1.36
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kolenciak)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082590
Palmi3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 10 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Kolenciak1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 23 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePalmi3wins
AwayKolenciak7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolenciak leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePalmi40%2 of 5
AwayKolenciak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palmi5Kolenciak5n = 10split evenly
S2Palmi3Kolenciak7n = 10Kolenciak took 7 of 10
S3Palmi1Kolenciak9n = 10Kolenciak took 9 of 10
S4Palmi2Kolenciak4n = 6Kolenciak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPalmiKolenciakP − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.337.4−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPalmiKolenciakBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 128 vs 80 / 17740.6%45.2%52 / 128 vs 80 / 177Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolenciakPalmi 3.00/Kolenciak 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.2%
Kolenciak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Palmi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 13:30I. Palmi—118641I. Kolenciak—21111113
LAug 7 · 12:00I. Palmi—8690I. Kolenciak—1111113
WJul 17 · 10:00I. Palmi—12117113I. Kolenciak—1091181
LMay 30 · 15:30I. Palmi—118881I. Kolenciak—71111113
LMay 22 · 13:30I. Palmi—8680I. Kolenciak—1111113
LMay 22 · 10:00I. Palmi—119571I. Kolenciak—71111113
WMay 16 · 10:00I. Palmi—91111113I. Kolenciak—118991
LMay 13 · 12:30I. Palmi—4840I. Kolenciak—1111113
LFeb 8 · 17:00I. Palmi—8490I. Kolenciak—1111113
WDec 2 · 13:30I. Palmi—151178113I. Kolenciak—138111192
I. Palmi10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640LSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591WSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113WAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470WAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113LAug 26 · 15:30I. Palmi1.83611691S. Blabla1.8311811113WAug 26 · 14:30A. Kanak1.67911811102I. Palmi2.10116117123LAug 15 · 13:30M. Stolba1.331311108113I. Palmi3.25115121152LAug 15 · 12:30I. Palmi1.5011119392J. Foltynek2.50671111113LAug 15 · 11:00I. Palmi2.50861171M. Stolba1.5011115113
I. Kolenciak10
WSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851WSep 6 · 12:00I. Kolenciak2.00412411113D. Vavrecka1.73111011892LSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.577111041A. Kanak2.2511712113WAug 7 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.4021111113I. Palmi2.75118641WAug 7 · 12:00I. Kolenciak1.531111113I. Palmi2.388690LAug 7 · 11:30J. Toth1.911112119113I. Kolenciak1.8051481172WAug 7 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.40131012113J. Foltynek2.7511121081WAug 2 · 08:59J. Foltynek2.208380I. Kolenciak1.611111113LAug 2 · 08:30I. Kolenciak1.5011119972J. Foltynek2.50781111113LAug 2 · 07:00I. Kolenciak2.1010960M. Derco1.671211113
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