TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12371452
Played Aug 7Finished
Josef Toth
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151214118911117
Ivan Kolenciak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kolenciak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJosef Toth above · Ivan Kolenciak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ivan Kolenciak at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Josef Toth 5–6 Ivan Kolenciak Josef Toth has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:13What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kolenciak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Toth 1220 vs Kolenciak 1185
Toth
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Toth 40% vs Kolenciak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Toth 30% vs Kolenciak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Toth -2 · Kolenciak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolenciak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenciak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsToth 1.91 / Kolenciak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolenciak)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12371452
Toth1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 28 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Kolenciak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 23 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 20 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeToth5wins
AwayKolenciak5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeToth60%3 of 5
AwayKolenciak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Toth5Kolenciak5n = 10split evenly
S2Toth5Kolenciak5n = 10split evenly
S3Toth4Kolenciak6n = 10Kolenciak took 6 of 10
S4Toth3Kolenciak5n = 8Kolenciak took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTothKolenciakT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.3+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTothKolenciakBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 154 vs 86 / 18946.1%45.5%71 / 154 vs 86 / 189Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolenciakToth 1.91/Kolenciak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolenciak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Toth won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 11:30J. Toth—1112119113I. Kolenciak—51481172
WJul 30 · 06:30J. Toth—11117113I. Kolenciak—421181
LJul 9 · 09:30J. Toth—811781I. Kolenciak—11911113
WJul 9 · 07:00J. Toth—1111113I. Kolenciak—7640
WJun 30 · 08:30J. Toth—911612113I. Kolenciak—116111092
LMay 30 · 14:00J. Toth—991291I. Kolenciak—111110113
LMay 7 · 12:58J. Toth—1165111I. Kolenciak—81111133
WMay 7 · 11:00J. Toth—101113113I. Kolenciak—1251191
LMay 2 · 06:30J. Toth—710130I. Kolenciak—1112153
LApr 5 · 08:59J. Toth—1113751I. Kolenciak—91511113
J. Toth10
LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113LAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113WAug 15 · 11:30J. Foltynek2.63791181J. Toth1.4411116113LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth2.00781161I. Palmi1.7311116113WAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941LAug 10 · 08:30Z. Luksa1.25751111113J. Toth3.7511118672
I. Kolenciak10
WSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851WSep 6 · 12:00I. Kolenciak2.00412411113D. Vavrecka1.73111011892LSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781LSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.577111041A. Kanak2.2511712113WAug 7 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.4021111113I. Palmi2.75118641WAug 7 · 12:00I. Kolenciak1.531111113I. Palmi2.388690WAug 7 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.40131012113J. Foltynek2.7511121081WAug 2 · 08:59J. Foltynek2.208380I. Kolenciak1.611111113LAug 2 · 08:30I. Kolenciak1.5011119972J. Foltynek2.50781111113LAug 2 · 07:00I. Kolenciak2.1010960M. Derco1.671211113
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