TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082895
Played Sep 6Finished
Ivan Kolenciak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111210411118119
David Vavrecka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeIvan Kolenciak to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kolenciak above · David Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Kolenciak at 58.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kolenciak 4–3 David Vavrecka David Vavrecka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vavrecka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolenciak 1170 vs Vavrecka 1133
Kolenciak
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolenciak 40% vs Vavrecka 20%
Kolenciak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolenciak 40% vs Vavrecka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolenciak -2 · Vavrecka -4
Vavrecka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vavrecka) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolenciak 2.00 / Vavrecka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vavrecka)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082895
Kolenciak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 13 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Vavrecka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it64% 14 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKolenciak4wins
AwayVavrecka3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKolenciak leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolenciak100%3 of 3
AwayVavrecka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolenciak3Vavrecka4n = 7Vavrecka took 4 of 7
S2Kolenciak3Vavrecka4n = 7Vavrecka took 4 of 7
S3Kolenciak5Vavrecka2n = 7Kolenciak took 5 of 7
S4Kolenciak0Vavrecka3n = 3Vavrecka took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricKolenciakVavreckaK − VBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match37.635.7+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolenciakVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 178 vs 56 / 12344.9%45.5%80 / 178 vs 56 / 123Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.235.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavreckaKolenciak 2.00/Vavrecka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vavrecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolenciak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJun 30 · 09:00I. Kolenciak—111080D. Vavrecka—1312113
LJun 30 · 07:00I. Kolenciak—8413121D. Vavrecka—111111143
LApr 18 · 12:30I. Kolenciak—108130D. Vavrecka—1211153
WJul 29 · 13:00I. Kolenciak—11101111113D. Vavrecka—91241392
WJul 29 · 10:30I. Kolenciak—1111113D. Vavrecka—7990
WJul 16 · 12:00I. Kolenciak—511118113D. Vavrecka—11961172
WJul 8 · 12:00I. Kolenciak—1111113D. Vavrecka—3550
I. Kolenciak10
WSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851LSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781LSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.577111041A. Kanak2.2511712113WAug 7 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.4021111113I. Palmi2.75118641WAug 7 · 12:00I. Kolenciak1.531111113I. Palmi2.388690LAug 7 · 11:30J. Toth1.911112119113I. Kolenciak1.8051481172WAug 7 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.40131012113J. Foltynek2.7511121081WAug 2 · 08:59J. Foltynek2.208380I. Kolenciak1.611111113LAug 2 · 08:30I. Kolenciak1.5011119972J. Foltynek2.50781111113LAug 2 · 07:00I. Kolenciak2.1010960M. Derco1.671211113
D. Vavrecka10
LSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851LSep 6 · 11:00A. Kanak1.6711711173D. Vavrecka2.108112151LSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113LAug 29 · 20:59D. Vavrecka1.53111081122M. Stolba2.38612115113LAug 29 · 20:00M. Blaha2.00671111113D. Vavrecka1.7311116462WAug 29 · 19:00M. Stolba2.20571191D. Vavrecka1.6111115113LAug 29 · 18:30D. Vavrecka1.7311961342A. Kanak2.003111111113WAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113WAug 27 · 12:30M. Stolba2.20151111762D. Vavrecka1.61177911113WAug 27 · 11:30D. Vavrecka1.6711116113M. Blaha2.10981191
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