TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020933
Played Aug 27Finished
Miroslav Stolba
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1517117119711611
David Vavrecka
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:08 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Vavrecka to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Stolba above · David Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 105 set 5, 6-11 — our read held David Vavrecka at 66.3%
105 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Stolba 0–4 David Vavrecka Miroslav Stolba has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vavrecka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Vavrecka
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolba 1166 vs Vavrecka 1177
Vavrecka
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolba 60% vs Vavrecka 20%
Stolba
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolba 40% vs Vavrecka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolba -2 · Vavrecka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vavrecka) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolba 2.20 / Vavrecka 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vavrecka)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020933
Stolba2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog57% won 17 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back38% 6 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Vavrecka1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 17 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStolba0wins
AwayVavrecka4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderVavrecka leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolba2Vavrecka2n = 4split evenly
S2Stolba0Vavrecka4n = 4Vavrecka took 4 of 4
S3Stolba3Vavrecka1n = 4Stolba took 3 of 4
S4Stolba0Vavrecka3n = 3Vavrecka took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricStolbaVavreckaS − VBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.041.2−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolbaVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 98 vs 53 / 11951%44.5%50 / 98 vs 53 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavreckaStolba 2.20/Vavrecka 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Vavrecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LApr 5 · 15:00M. Stolba—9590D. Vavrecka—1111113
LMar 21 · 11:30M. Stolba—871141D. Vavrecka—11117113
LNov 29 · 19:30M. Stolba—1191110102D. Vavrecka—611812123
LOct 31 · 19:30M. Stolba—11511762D. Vavrecka—711311113
M. Stolba10
WAug 29 · 20:59D. Vavrecka1.53111081122M. Stolba2.38612115113LAug 29 · 20:30M. Stolba2.0051391182A. Kanak1.731111116113LAug 29 · 19:00M. Stolba2.20571191D. Vavrecka1.6111115113LAug 29 · 18:00M. Blaha1.441111113M. Stolba2.636530LAug 27 · 13:02M. Blaha1.8011116113M. Stolba1.91651171LAug 27 · 11:00M. Stolba1.67611261Z. Luksa2.1011911113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Blaha1.67711911133M. Stolba2.10117117112WAug 15 · 13:30M. Stolba1.331311108113I. Palmi3.25115121152WAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113WAug 15 · 11:00I. Palmi2.50861171M. Stolba1.5011115113
D. Vavrecka10
LSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851LSep 6 · 12:00I. Kolenciak2.00412411113D. Vavrecka1.73111011892LSep 6 · 11:00A. Kanak1.6711711173D. Vavrecka2.108112151LSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113LAug 29 · 20:59D. Vavrecka1.53111081122M. Stolba2.38612115113LAug 29 · 20:00M. Blaha2.00671111113D. Vavrecka1.7311116462WAug 29 · 19:00M. Stolba2.20571191D. Vavrecka1.6111115113LAug 29 · 18:30D. Vavrecka1.7311961342A. Kanak2.003111111113WAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113WAug 27 · 11:30D. Vavrecka1.6711116113M. Blaha2.10981191
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