TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082586
Played Sep 6Finished
David Vavrecka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118911711117911
Ivo Palmi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Vavrecka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Vavrecka above · Ivo Palmi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held David Vavrecka at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H David Vavrecka 1–1 Ivo Palmi Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vavrecka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1145 vs Palmi 1135
Vavrecka
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 40% vs Palmi 60%
Palmi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 40% vs Palmi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka -2 · Palmi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vavrecka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 1.80 / Palmi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vavrecka)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082586
Vavrecka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it64% 14 of 22
Palmi1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 10 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVavrecka1wins
AwayPalmi1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricVavreckaPalmiV − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match29.532.0−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaPalmiBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 125 vs 53 / 13144.8%40.5%56 / 125 vs 53 / 131Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavreckaVavrecka 1.80/Palmi 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vavrecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Palmi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 5 · 13:00D. Vavrecka—51111113I. Palmi—112991
LJul 5 · 10:00D. Vavrecka—8760I. Palmi—1111113
D. Vavrecka10
LSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851LSep 6 · 12:00I. Kolenciak2.00412411113D. Vavrecka1.73111011892LSep 6 · 11:00A. Kanak1.6711711173D. Vavrecka2.108112151LAug 29 · 20:59D. Vavrecka1.53111081122M. Stolba2.38612115113LAug 29 · 20:00M. Blaha2.00671111113D. Vavrecka1.7311116462WAug 29 · 19:00M. Stolba2.20571191D. Vavrecka1.6111115113LAug 29 · 18:30D. Vavrecka1.7311961342A. Kanak2.003111111113WAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113WAug 27 · 12:30M. Stolba2.20151111762D. Vavrecka1.61177911113WAug 27 · 11:30D. Vavrecka1.6711116113M. Blaha2.10981191
I. Palmi10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640LSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591WSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781WAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470WAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113LAug 26 · 15:30I. Palmi1.83611691S. Blabla1.8311811113WAug 26 · 14:30A. Kanak1.67911811102I. Palmi2.10116117123LAug 15 · 13:30M. Stolba1.331311108113I. Palmi3.25115121152LAug 15 · 12:30I. Palmi1.5011119392J. Foltynek2.50671111113LAug 15 · 11:00I. Palmi2.50861171M. Stolba1.5011115113
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