TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12371333
Played Aug 7Finished
Ivan Kolenciak
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131110121210118––
Jiri Foltynek
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeIvan Kolenciak to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kolenciak above · Jiri Foltynek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 87 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Kolenciak at 59.6%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kolenciak 4–2 Jiri Foltynek Jiri Foltynek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolenciak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Kolenciak
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolenciak 1185 vs Foltynek 1119
Kolenciak
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolenciak 40% vs Foltynek 20%
Kolenciak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolenciak 40% vs Foltynek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolenciak +1 · Foltynek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kolenciak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Foltynek form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolenciak 1.40 / Foltynek 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kolenciak)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12371333
Kolenciak1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 23 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 20 of 29
Foltynek2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 19 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back29% 7 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolenciak4wins
AwayFoltynek2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKolenciak leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolenciak80%4 of 5
AwayFoltynekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolenciak5Foltynek1n = 6Kolenciak took 5 of 6
S2Kolenciak4Foltynek2n = 6Kolenciak took 4 of 6
S3Kolenciak3Foltynek3n = 6split evenly
S4Kolenciak2Foltynek3n = 5Foltynek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolenciakFoltynekK − FBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match40.034.7+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolenciakFoltynekBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 187 vs 56 / 13645.5%41.2%85 / 187 vs 56 / 136Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolenciakKolenciak 1.40/Foltynek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.3%
Kolenciak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolenciak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 2 · 08:59I. Kolenciak—1111113J. Foltynek—8380
LAug 2 · 08:30I. Kolenciak—11119972J. Foltynek—781111113
LJul 17 · 11:30I. Kolenciak—561171J. Foltynek—11119113
WOct 5 · 10:30I. Kolenciak—111111113J. Foltynek—951331
WSep 30 · 11:30I. Kolenciak—1112109113J. Foltynek—510121122
WSep 26 · 11:00I. Kolenciak—1131193J. Foltynek—711831
I. Kolenciak10
WSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851WSep 6 · 12:00I. Kolenciak2.00412411113D. Vavrecka1.73111011892LSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781LSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.577111041A. Kanak2.2511712113WAug 7 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.4021111113I. Palmi2.75118641WAug 7 · 12:00I. Kolenciak1.531111113I. Palmi2.388690LAug 7 · 11:30J. Toth1.911112119113I. Kolenciak1.8051481172WAug 2 · 08:59J. Foltynek2.208380I. Kolenciak1.611111113LAug 2 · 08:30I. Kolenciak1.5011119972J. Foltynek2.50781111113LAug 2 · 07:00I. Kolenciak2.1010960M. Derco1.671211113
J. Foltynek10
LSep 1 · 13:30J. Foltynek1.3061110121V. Matysek3.4011712143WSep 1 · 12:30J. Foltynek1.331111113V. Matysek3.256860LSep 1 · 11:00J. Foltynek2.10105121192J. Motak1.671211108113WSep 1 · 10:00L. Martinec2.2011861172J. Foltynek1.61511118113LAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470LAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113LAug 26 · 15:00J. Foltynek1.83711751A. Kanak1.8311811113LAug 26 · 14:00S. Blabla1.831191311113J. Foltynek1.8341115852LAug 2 · 08:59J. Foltynek2.208380I. Kolenciak1.611111113WAug 2 · 08:30I. Kolenciak1.5011119972J. Foltynek2.50781111113
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