TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12346494
Played Aug 2Finished
Ivan Kolenciak
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911611––––
Michal Derco
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:43 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kolenciak above · Michal Derco below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Michal Derco at 57.8%
59 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kolenciak 3–4 Michal Derco Ivan Kolenciak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derco
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolenciak 1185 vs Derco 1278
Derco
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolenciak 40% vs Derco 100%
Derco
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolenciak 40% vs Derco 100%
Derco
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolenciak -1 · Derco +5
Derco
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Derco) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derco form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolenciak 2.10 / Derco 1.67
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Derco)+8.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12346494
Kolenciak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Derco1.67
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 22 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKolenciak3wins
AwayDerco4wins
Derco leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolenciak75%3 of 4
AwayDerco100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolenciak4Derco3n = 7Kolenciak took 4 of 7
S2Kolenciak4Derco3n = 7Kolenciak took 4 of 7
S3Kolenciak3Derco4n = 7Derco took 4 of 7
S4Kolenciak1Derco3n = 4Derco took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKolenciakDercoK − DBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match35.133.3+1.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolenciakDercoBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 187 vs 40 / 7645.5%52.6%85 / 187 vs 40 / 76Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DercoKolenciak 2.10/Derco 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derco won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 2 · 07:00I. Kolenciak—10960M. Derco—1211113
LJul 30 · 08:00I. Kolenciak—11119111M. Derco—13711133
LJul 17 · 13:04I. Kolenciak—11610101M. Derco—71112123
WJul 17 · 12:00I. Kolenciak—1111113M. Derco—3490
WJul 9 · 08:30I. Kolenciak—11114113M. Derco—981151
WMay 22 · 11:30I. Kolenciak—1111113M. Derco—4990
LMay 7 · 10:30I. Kolenciak—1651171M. Derco—18112113
I. Kolenciak10
WSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851WSep 6 · 12:00I. Kolenciak2.00412411113D. Vavrecka1.73111011892LSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781LSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.577111041A. Kanak2.2511712113WAug 7 · 13:30I. Kolenciak1.4021111113I. Palmi2.75118641WAug 7 · 12:00I. Kolenciak1.531111113I. Palmi2.388690LAug 7 · 11:30J. Toth1.911112119113I. Kolenciak1.8051481172WAug 7 · 10:00I. Kolenciak1.40131012113J. Foltynek2.7511121081WAug 2 · 08:59J. Foltynek2.208380I. Kolenciak1.611111113LAug 2 · 08:30I. Kolenciak1.5011119972J. Foltynek2.50781111113
M. Derco10
WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113LAug 16 · 06:00P. Banot1.611111113M. Derco2.209380WAug 10 · 12:58M. Derco2.3891111143D. Vavrecka1.531134121LAug 10 · 12:00P. Banot1.8311611113M. Derco1.83911421
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