TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12460514
Played Aug 20Finished
Michal Derco
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11138111210116911
Tomas Navrat
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Derco above · Tomas Navrat below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 102 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Michal Derco at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Michal Derco 0–1 Tomas Navrat Michal Derco has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Navrat
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Derco 1254 vs Navrat 1232
Derco
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derco 60% vs Navrat 20%
Derco
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derco 60% vs Navrat 40%
Derco
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derco +3 · Navrat -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derco)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navrat form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerco 1.83 / Navrat 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derco)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12460514
Derco1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Navrat1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDerco0wins
AwayNavrat1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderNavrat leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDercoNavratD − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match51.051.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDercoNavratBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 82 vs 22 / 5953.7%37.3%44 / 82 vs 22 / 59Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DercoDerco 1.83/Navrat 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Navrat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco—118121192T. Navrat—1311106113
M. Derco10
WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113LAug 16 · 06:00P. Banot1.611111113M. Derco2.209380WAug 10 · 12:58M. Derco2.3891111143D. Vavrecka1.531134121LAug 10 · 12:00P. Banot1.8311611113M. Derco1.83911421WAug 10 · 11:00V. Rybar1.801111111142M. Derco1.91131356113
T. Navrat10
LAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:00V. Rybar1.3613811113T. Navrat3.001111661LAug 20 · 18:30T. Navrat1.36113581M. Blaha3.0091111113LJul 17 · 21:05V. Rybar1.441111113T. Navrat2.638490LJul 17 · 20:00V. Rybar2.0091111113T. Navrat1.73119661WJul 17 · 19:00V. Kocian1.67119911102T. Navrat2.10911119123LJul 17 · 18:30T. Navrat2.10611111082P. Banot1.67119912113LJul 3 · 21:30T. Navrat1.53119111192R. Adamczyk2.38911135113WJul 3 · 20:00A. Kanak1.61911561T. Navrat2.2011911113WJul 3 · 19:00R. Adamczyk2.38168791T. Navrat1.53141111113
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