TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12390919
Played Aug 10Finished
Vaclav Rybar
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131113115116411
Michal Derco
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:17 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Rybar above · Michal Derco below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 96 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Michal Derco at 61.3%
96 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:17What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rybar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Rybar 1356 vs Derco 1260
Rybar
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybar 80% vs Derco 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybar 50% vs Derco 90%
Derco
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybar +4 · Derco -1
Rybar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rybar) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derco form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybar 1.80 / Derco 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rybar)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12390919
Rybar1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 9 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Derco1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog48% won 14 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back31% 4 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybarDercoBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 29 vs 40 / 7758.6%52%17 / 29 vs 40 / 77Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RybarRybar 1.80/Derco 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rybar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Derco won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Rybar10
WAug 20 · 21:30M. Blaha1.90951161V. Rybar1.8011117113WAug 20 · 20:00V. Rybar1.3613811113T. Navrat3.001111661WAug 20 · 19:30M. Blaha1.91111166112V. Rybar1.80891111133LAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113LAug 10 · 13:28V. Rybar1.403870P. Banot2.751111113WAug 10 · 12:30V. Rybar1.611111113D. Vavrecka2.206450WAug 10 · 10:00P. Banot2.258111071V. Rybar1.5711612113WAug 4 · 20:59V. Rybar1.571111113R. Adamczyk2.257740WAug 4 · 20:00V. Kocian2.00101111862V. Rybar1.73129411113WAug 4 · 19:00R. Adamczyk2.10105111242V. Rybar1.671211810113
M. Derco10
WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113LAug 16 · 06:00P. Banot1.611111113M. Derco2.209380WAug 10 · 12:58M. Derco2.3891111143D. Vavrecka1.531134121LAug 10 · 12:00P. Banot1.8311611113M. Derco1.83911421
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