TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12356213
Played Aug 4Finished
Vojtech Kocian
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119114811611
Vaclav Rybar
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:45 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeVaclav Rybar to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Kocian above · Vaclav Rybar below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Vaclav Rybar at 59.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Kocian 1–3 Vaclav Rybar Vojtech Kocian has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rybar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Rybar
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocian 1362 vs Rybar 1313
Kocian
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocian 60% vs Rybar 40%
Kocian
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocian 50% vs Rybar 30%
Kocian
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocian +1 · Rybar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rybar) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybar form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocian 2.00 / Rybar 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rybar)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12356213
Kocian2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 20 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Rybar1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 6 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it67% 4 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKocian1wins
AwayRybar3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderRybar leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKociann = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayRybar75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocian0Rybar4n = 4Rybar took 4 of 4
S2Kocian2Rybar2n = 4split evenly
S3Kocian2Rybar2n = 4split evenly
S4Kocian1Rybar2n = 3Rybar took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKocianRybarK − RBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match35.041.0−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocianRybarBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 150 vs 14 / 2651.3%53.9%77 / 150 vs 14 / 26Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RybarKocian 2.00/Rybar 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rybar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rybar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 31 · 12:30V. Kocian—76121192V. Rybar—1111107113
WJul 17 · 18:00V. Kocian—911114113V. Rybar—11491152
LJul 6 · 21:00V. Kocian—11470V. Rybar—1311113
LJul 6 · 19:30V. Kocian—311491V. Rybar—11611113
V. Kocian10
WSep 7 · 08:30V. Kocian1.531111133M. Kaspar2.3886110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Kocian1.7311491172M. Levicky2.00811119113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Tyn2.001110991V. Kocian1.7351211113LAug 30 · 13:30V. Kocian1.7395110D. Tyn2.001111133WAug 30 · 12:30D. Tyn2.10671191V. Kocian1.6711115113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kocian2.25511119113M. Levicky1.5711541152WAug 30 · 10:30M. Kaspar2.2568111582V. Kocian1.571111913113LAug 22 · 21:28V. Kocian1.57116761D. Tyn2.2551111113WAug 22 · 20:00D. Tyn2.101111105122V. Kocian1.67981211143WAug 22 · 19:00R. Adamczyk2.75131181152V. Kocian1.40159119113
V. Rybar10
WAug 20 · 21:30M. Blaha1.90951161V. Rybar1.8011117113WAug 20 · 20:00V. Rybar1.3613811113T. Navrat3.001111661WAug 20 · 19:30M. Blaha1.91111166112V. Rybar1.80891111133LAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113LAug 10 · 13:28V. Rybar1.403870P. Banot2.751111113WAug 10 · 12:30V. Rybar1.611111113D. Vavrecka2.206450LAug 10 · 11:00V. Rybar1.801111111142M. Derco1.91131356113WAug 10 · 10:00P. Banot2.258111071V. Rybar1.5711612113WAug 4 · 20:59V. Rybar1.571111113R. Adamczyk2.257740WAug 4 · 19:00R. Adamczyk2.10105111242V. Rybar1.671211810113
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