TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042170
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Kaspar
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6118111191513811
Vojtech Kocian
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeVojtech Kocian to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kaspar above · Vojtech Kocian below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 103 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Vojtech Kocian at 59.6%
103 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kaspar 1–3 Vojtech Kocian Michal Kaspar has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kocian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kocian
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaspar 1231 vs Kocian 1354
Kocian
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaspar 40% vs Kocian 80%
Kocian
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaspar 40% vs Kocian 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaspar -2 · Kocian -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kocian) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocian form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaspar 2.25 / Kocian 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kocian)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042170
Kaspar2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 23 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back32% 9 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Kocian1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 47 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 34 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKaspar1wins
AwayKocian3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKocian leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasparn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKocian100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaspar1Kocian3n = 4Kocian took 3 of 4
S2Kaspar1Kocian3n = 4Kocian took 3 of 4
S3Kaspar2Kocian2n = 4split evenly
S4Kaspar2Kocian1n = 3Kaspar took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKasparKocianKaspar − KocianBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match36.239.8−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasparKocianBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 172 vs 86 / 16543.6%52.1%75 / 172 vs 86 / 165Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocianKaspar 2.25/Kocian 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Kocian · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kocian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kaspar—68111582V. Kocian—1111913113
LAug 17 · 12:58M. Kaspar—911751V. Kocian—11511113
WAug 17 · 11:30M. Kaspar—11911113V. Kocian—511881
LJun 16 · 08:30M. Kaspar—71060V. Kocian—1112113
M. Kaspar10
LSep 7 · 08:30V. Kocian1.531111133M. Kaspar2.3886110LSep 7 · 07:30M. Kaspar1.8311811942D. Tyn1.83811611113WSep 7 · 06:30M. Levicky1.837111081M. Kaspar1.8311712113WAug 30 · 12:59M. Levicky1.5716137992M. Kaspar2.2514111111113LAug 30 · 12:00M. Levicky1.831111113M. Kaspar1.837860LAug 30 · 11:00D. Tyn1.91115115113M. Kaspar1.8091191152LAug 18 · 09:30M. Kaspar1.83881131Z. Zientek1.8311118113LAug 18 · 08:00M. Levicky1.80111276113M. Kaspar1.91910111172WAug 18 · 07:00Z. Zientek1.731181091M. Kaspar2.0051112113WAug 18 · 06:30M. Kaspar1.7311811123P. Banot2.007116101
V. Kocian10
WSep 7 · 08:30V. Kocian1.531111133M. Kaspar2.3886110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Kocian1.7311491172M. Levicky2.00811119113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Tyn2.001110991V. Kocian1.7351211113LAug 30 · 13:30V. Kocian1.7395110D. Tyn2.001111133WAug 30 · 12:30D. Tyn2.10671191V. Kocian1.6711115113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kocian2.25511119113M. Levicky1.5711541152LAug 22 · 21:28V. Kocian1.57116761D. Tyn2.2551111113WAug 22 · 20:00D. Tyn2.101111105122V. Kocian1.67981211143WAug 22 · 19:00R. Adamczyk2.75131181152V. Kocian1.40159119113WAug 22 · 18:30V. Kocian1.501111113M. Blaha2.508860
Upcoming Matches
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V. Kocian
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