TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12448141
Played Aug 18Finished
Michal Kaspar
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1178111161210––
Petr Banot
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 64.2% is still 64.2%
Graded at full timePetr Banot to win
64.2%
64.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Kaspar above · Petr Banot below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Petr Banot at 64.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kaspar 2–1 Petr Banot Petr Banot has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kaspar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaspar 1290 vs Banot 1359
Banot
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaspar 40% vs Banot 100%
Banot
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaspar 40% vs Banot 90%
Banot
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaspar -2 · Banot +5
Banot
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaspar) · live re-read · sealed at 36% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Banot form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaspar 1.73 / Banot 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaspar)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12448141
Kaspar1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite29% won 6 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Banot2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog34% won 18 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKaspar2wins
AwayBanot1wins
Kaspar leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaspar2Banot1n = 3Kaspar took 2 of 3
S2Kaspar2Banot1n = 3Kaspar took 2 of 3
S3Kaspar2Banot1n = 3Kaspar took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKasparBanotK − BBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.733.3+3.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasparBanotBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 188 vs 51 / 10443.6%49%82 / 188 vs 51 / 104Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasparKaspar 1.73/Banot 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaspar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaspar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 18 · 06:30M. Kaspar—11811123P. Banot—7116101
WJun 23 · 08:00M. Kaspar—1111113P. Banot—9760
LMar 26 · 11:30M. Kaspar—1012671P. Banot—121011113
M. Kaspar10
LSep 7 · 07:30M. Kaspar1.8311811942D. Tyn1.83811611113WSep 7 · 06:30M. Levicky1.837111081M. Kaspar1.8311712113WAug 30 · 12:59M. Levicky1.5716137992M. Kaspar2.2514111111113LAug 30 · 12:00M. Levicky1.831111113M. Kaspar1.837860LAug 30 · 11:00D. Tyn1.91115115113M. Kaspar1.8091191152LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kaspar2.2568111582V. Kocian1.571111913113LAug 18 · 09:30M. Kaspar1.83881131Z. Zientek1.8311118113LAug 18 · 08:00M. Levicky1.80111276113M. Kaspar1.91910111172WAug 18 · 07:00Z. Zientek1.731181091M. Kaspar2.0051112113LAug 17 · 12:58M. Kaspar1.91911751V. Kocian1.8011511113
P. Banot10
LAug 20 · 21:00P. Banot1.8011913892D. Tyn1.918111111113LAug 20 · 20:30M. Levicky3.256111311133P. Banot1.331113118112LAug 20 · 19:30P. Banot2.63811561Z. Zientek1.4411711113WAug 20 · 18:30D. Tyn2.0081111392P. Banot1.73118911113WAug 18 · 08:58M. Levicky2.636410P. Banot1.441111113LAug 18 · 08:30Z. Zientek1.501111113P. Banot2.504690WAug 18 · 07:30P. Banot1.4411711113M. Levicky2.63811681WAug 16 · 09:29P. Banot1.5011119113M. Blaha2.50631161WAug 16 · 08:00P. Banot1.6191111113M. Blaha2.20116701WAug 16 · 07:30D. Vavrecka4.334950P. Banot1.201111113
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