TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12448143
Played Aug 18Finished
Zbynek Zientek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1158111012911––
Michal Kaspar
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Kaspar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Zientek above · Michal Kaspar below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Michal Kaspar at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Zientek 12–7 Michal Kaspar Michal Kaspar has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:11What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zientek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Zientek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zientek 1347 vs Kaspar 1290
Zientek
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zientek 80% vs Kaspar 40%
Zientek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zientek 50% vs Kaspar 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zientek +3 · Kaspar +1
Zientek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Zientek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zientek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZientek 1.73 / Kaspar 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Zientek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12448143
Zientek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 58 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it71% 46 of 65
Kaspar2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 23 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZientek5wins
AwayKaspar5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZientek57.1%4 of 7
AwayKaspar66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zientek7Kaspar3n = 10Zientek took 7 of 10
S2Zientek4Kaspar6n = 10Kaspar took 6 of 10
S3Zientek4Kaspar6n = 10Kaspar took 6 of 10
S4Zientek3Kaspar5n = 8Kaspar took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZientekKasparZ − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.736.4+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZientekKasparBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 367 vs 82 / 18849.3%43.6%181 / 367 vs 82 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZientekZientek 1.73/Kaspar 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Zientek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaspar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 09:30Z. Zientek—11118113M. Kaspar—881131
LAug 18 · 07:00Z. Zientek—1181091M. Kaspar—51112113
WAug 17 · 12:00Z. Zientek—121184113M. Kaspar—108111172
LAug 13 · 08:58Z. Zientek—71714111M. Kaspar—111912133
WAug 13 · 08:00Z. Zientek—71111123M. Kaspar—1184101
LAug 11 · 07:30Z. Zientek—118981M. Kaspar—41111113
WAug 6 · 09:30Z. Zientek—11511113M. Kaspar—611751
WAug 6 · 07:30Z. Zientek—1111113M. Kaspar—8480
LJul 19 · 17:30Z. Zientek—117751M. Kaspar—81111113
LJul 19 · 15:30Z. Zientek—6540M. Kaspar—1111113
Z. Zientek10
WSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113LSep 2 · 08:30A. Virag1.571111123Z. Zientek2.2577100WSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:30E. Sionkala1.36149571Z. Zientek3.00121111113LAug 30 · 09:00R. Kvasnicka1.61611711123Z. Zientek2.20117114102LAug 30 · 08:30Z. Zientek2.0011511892R. Kvasnicka1.73611811113LAug 30 · 07:00Z. Zientek2.00118681F. Zurek1.7391111113LAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282WAug 28 · 20:59Z. Zientek1.531114109123D. Tyn2.388121211102WAug 28 · 20:30Z. Zientek1.5717116113D. Tyn2.251561161
M. Kaspar10
LSep 7 · 08:30V. Kocian1.531111133M. Kaspar2.3886110LSep 7 · 07:30M. Kaspar1.8311811942D. Tyn1.83811611113WSep 7 · 06:30M. Levicky1.837111081M. Kaspar1.8311712113WAug 30 · 12:59M. Levicky1.5716137992M. Kaspar2.2514111111113LAug 30 · 12:00M. Levicky1.831111113M. Kaspar1.837860LAug 30 · 11:00D. Tyn1.91115115113M. Kaspar1.8091191152LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kaspar2.2568111582V. Kocian1.571111913113LAug 18 · 09:30M. Kaspar1.83881131Z. Zientek1.8311118113LAug 18 · 08:00M. Levicky1.80111276113M. Kaspar1.91910111172WAug 18 · 06:30M. Kaspar1.7311811123P. Banot2.007116101
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