TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13040667
Played Aug 30Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1195119111412118
Zbynek Zientek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeZbynek Zientek to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Zbynek Zientek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 101 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Zbynek Zientek at 54.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 10–12 Zbynek Zientek Matyas Kolek has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:37What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zientek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Zientek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1334 vs Zientek 1319
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 0% vs Zientek 40%
Zientek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 20% vs Zientek 50%
Zientek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -5 · Zientek +2
Kolek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zientek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.91 / Zientek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolek)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13040667
Kolek1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 40 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Zientek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 60 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it70% 48 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek6wins
AwayZientek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek100%5 of 5
AwayZientek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek5Zientek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolek2Zientek8n = 10Zientek took 8 of 10
S3Kolek6Zientek4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S4Kolek3Zientek4n = 7Zientek took 4 of 7
S5Kolek4Zientek0n = 4Kolek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekZientekK − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.440.4−3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekZientekBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 227 vs 188 / 38351.5%49.1%117 / 227 vs 188 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.91/Zientek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek—115914113Z. Zientek—911111282
WAug 12 · 10:00M. Kolek—11312113Z. Zientek—7111051
WAug 5 · 12:59M. Kolek—311114123Z. Zientek—116911102
LAug 5 · 12:00M. Kolek—1161271Z. Zientek—131110113
WAug 1 · 18:00M. Kolek—116311133Z. Zientek—311116112
WJul 31 · 12:00M. Kolek—1112126113Z. Zientek—614101182
WJul 28 · 06:00M. Kolek—1111113Z. Zientek—8890
LJul 19 · 14:00M. Kolek—7650Z. Zientek—1111113
LMay 2 · 18:30M. Kolek—891391Z. Zientek—111111113
LMay 2 · 16:00M. Kolek—11940Z. Zientek—1311113
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 08:30M. Kolek2.63119911112R. Kvasnicka1.44711117133LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek2.008990F. Zurek1.731111113
Z. Zientek10
WSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113LSep 2 · 08:30A. Virag1.571111123Z. Zientek2.2577100WSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:30E. Sionkala1.36149571Z. Zientek3.00121111113LAug 30 · 09:00R. Kvasnicka1.61611711123Z. Zientek2.20117114102LAug 30 · 08:30Z. Zientek2.0011511892R. Kvasnicka1.73611811113LAug 30 · 07:00Z. Zientek2.00118681F. Zurek1.7391111113WAug 28 · 20:59Z. Zientek1.531114109123D. Tyn2.388121211102WAug 28 · 20:30Z. Zientek1.5717116113D. Tyn2.251561161LAug 28 · 19:00Z. Zientek1.9111980D. Kolek1.801311113
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