TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13035755
Played Aug 29Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911911––––
Filip Zurek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:51 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeFilip Zurek to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Filip Zurek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Filip Zurek at 55.6%
59 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 6–8 Filip Zurek Matyas Kolek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:51What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Zurek
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1334 vs Zurek 1423
Zurek
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 40% vs Zurek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 40% vs Zurek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -2 · Zurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Zurek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.00 / Zurek 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Zurek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13035755
Kolek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 40 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Zurek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 91 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 68 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek4wins
AwayZurek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZurek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek40%2 of 5
AwayZurek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek5Zurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolek4Zurek6n = 10Zurek took 6 of 10
S3Kolek1Zurek9n = 10Zurek took 9 of 10
S4Kolek5Zurek3n = 8Kolek took 5 of 8
S5Kolek2Zurek1n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekZurekK − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.741.2−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekZurekBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 227 vs 283 / 56351.5%50.3%117 / 227 vs 283 / 563Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZurekKolek 2.00/Zurek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Zurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek—6580F. Zurek—1111113
WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek—12114123F. Zurek—10811101
LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek—8990F. Zurek—1111113
LAug 22 · 06:00M. Kolek—85111182F. Zurek—111174113
WJun 5 · 11:30M. Kolek—311711113F. Zurek—11711692
LApr 19 · 12:00M. Kolek—11101071F. Zurek—81212113
LApr 16 · 11:00M. Kolek—119991F. Zurek—81111113
WApr 15 · 06:00M. Kolek—10231011113F. Zurek—122112782
WApr 14 · 12:00M. Kolek—11117113F. Zurek—971131
LApr 7 · 06:30M. Kolek—149671F. Zurek—121111113
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 08:30M. Kolek2.63119911112R. Kvasnicka1.44711117133
F. Zurek10
WSep 6 · 13:05F. Zurek1.7311911113D. Mikula2.00911771WSep 6 · 12:00F. Zurek2.201115113D. Mikula1.6161360LSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952LSep 6 · 10:00F. Zurek1.4411510161T. Hrabec2.6341112183WSep 5 · 21:02M. Blejchar1.44721171F. Zurek2.6311117113LSep 5 · 20:30R. Guliak1.919111011113F. Zurek1.8011812862LSep 5 · 19:30F. Zurek2.751111941V. Cerny1.4013711113LSep 5 · 18:30M. Blejchar1.571111113F. Zurek2.259540WAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113LAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101
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