TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082505
Played Sep 6Finished
Filip Zurek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161513116––––
David Mikula
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:28 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Mikula to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Zurek above · David Mikula below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 62 set 3, 11-6 — our read held David Mikula at 59.6%
62 points played in total.
H2H Filip Zurek 4–12 David Mikula Filip Zurek has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:28What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mikula
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Mikula
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zurek 1419 vs Mikula 1343
Zurek
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zurek 20% vs Mikula 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zurek 40% vs Mikula 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zurek -2 · Mikula +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Mikula) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikula form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZurek 2.20 / Mikula 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Mikula)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13082505
Zurek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 117 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back33% 42 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Mikula1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 40 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZurek3wins
AwayMikula7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMikula leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZurekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMikula75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zurek2Mikula8n = 10Mikula took 8 of 10
S2Zurek4Mikula6n = 10Mikula took 6 of 10
S3Zurek3Mikula7n = 10Mikula took 7 of 10
S4Zurek4Mikula4n = 8split evenly
S5Zurek2Mikula1n = 3Zurek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZurekMikulaZ − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.342.4−3.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZurekMikulaBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 577 vs 171 / 36850.1%46.5%289 / 577 vs 171 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MikulaZurek 2.20/Mikula 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Mikula · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 08:00F. Zurek—911714123D. Mikula—1171112102
LAug 28 · 15:30F. Zurek—7101181D. Mikula—11123113
WAug 24 · 21:28F. Zurek—761111123D. Mikula—111157102
LAug 24 · 20:00F. Zurek—7111891D. Mikula—11820113
LAug 5 · 08:58F. Zurek—1012781D. Mikula—121011113
LAug 5 · 07:00F. Zurek—117771D. Mikula—81111113
LAug 1 · 10:00F. Zurek—105130D. Mikula—1211153
LAug 1 · 06:30F. Zurek—611811142D. Mikula—116115163
WJul 2 · 06:30F. Zurek—111011153D. Mikula—9123131
LJun 27 · 17:30F. Zurek—9540D. Mikula—1111113
F. Zurek10
WSep 6 · 13:05F. Zurek1.7311911113D. Mikula2.00911771LSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952LSep 6 · 10:00F. Zurek1.4411510161T. Hrabec2.6341112183WSep 5 · 21:02M. Blejchar1.44721171F. Zurek2.6311117113LSep 5 · 20:30R. Guliak1.919111011113F. Zurek1.8011812862LSep 5 · 19:30F. Zurek2.751111941V. Cerny1.4013711113LSep 5 · 18:30M. Blejchar1.571111113F. Zurek2.259540WSep 3 · 09:28M. Blejchar1.40771161F. Zurek2.7511119113WSep 3 · 08:30F. Zurek3.75911711113V. Cerny1.2511711962WSep 3 · 07:00F. Zurek2.38111110113V. Bosak1.53491241
D. Mikula10
LSep 6 · 13:05F. Zurek1.7311911113D. Mikula2.00911771WSep 6 · 11:00T. Hrabec2.0012911101D. Mikula1.7314118123LSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LSep 1 · 08:58D. Mikula2.203840J. Stach1.611111113LSep 1 · 08:00D. Mikula1.441171112102F. Zurek2.63911714123LSep 1 · 07:30P. Varecha1.611111113D. Mikula2.206770WSep 1 · 06:00D. Mikula2.63111110113J. Stach1.44581221LAug 28 · 17:29D. Mikula1.836850V. Cerny1.831111113LAug 28 · 16:00D. Mikula1.91918481V. Cerny1.80111611113WAug 28 · 15:30F. Zurek2.507101181D. Mikula1.5011123113
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