TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052416
Played Sep 1Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117117––––
David Mikula
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:07 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Mikula to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · David Mikula below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held David Mikula at 58.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 5–5 David Mikula Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Varecha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1419 vs Mikula 1364
Varecha
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 40% vs Mikula 60%
Mikula
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 30% vs Mikula 50%
Mikula
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha +1 · Mikula +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Varecha) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikula form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 1.61 / Mikula 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Varecha)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13052416
Varecha1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 45 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 31 of 41
Mikula2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecha5wins
AwayMikula5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha62.5%5 of 8
AwayMikulan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha8Mikula2n = 10Varecha took 8 of 10
S2Varecha4Mikula6n = 10Mikula took 6 of 10
S3Varecha6Mikula4n = 10Varecha took 6 of 10
S4Varecha2Mikula4n = 6Mikula took 4 of 6
S5Varecha2Mikula3n = 5Mikula took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarechaMikulaV − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.8+1.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaMikulaBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 222 vs 170 / 36650.5%46.5%112 / 222 vs 170 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarechaVarecha 1.61/Mikula 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Varecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 07:30P. Varecha—1111113D. Mikula—6770
WJul 23 · 07:30P. Varecha—111157113D. Mikula—78111192
WJul 15 · 09:30P. Varecha—1111113D. Mikula—8780
LJul 15 · 08:00P. Varecha—118916102D. Mikula—6111114123
WJul 9 · 07:00P. Varecha—1111113D. Mikula—6660
LJun 4 · 07:30P. Varecha—71070D. Mikula—1112113
WMay 19 · 07:00P. Varecha—1191111113D. Mikula—81181372
LSep 25 · 09:23P. Varecha—11911992D. Mikula—511911113
LSep 25 · 06:30P. Varecha—115591D. Mikula—41111113
LSep 10 · 07:00P. Varecha—331111132D. Mikula—111178153
P. Varecha10
LSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113WSep 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.73111011113E. Sionkala2.00512781LSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WSep 1 · 09:29P. Varecha2.1011711113F. Zurek1.67511681LSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471WSep 1 · 06:30F. Zurek1.449480P. Varecha2.631111113LAug 29 · 16:59P. Varecha1.36115461V. Bosak3.0051111113LAug 29 · 16:30M. Jaksa1.671111113P. Varecha2.109770WAug 29 · 15:30P. Varecha2.203111111113V. Bosak1.6111991362
D. Mikula10
LSep 6 · 13:05F. Zurek1.7311911113D. Mikula2.00911771LSep 6 · 12:00F. Zurek2.201115113D. Mikula1.6161360WSep 6 · 11:00T. Hrabec2.0012911101D. Mikula1.7314118123LSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LSep 1 · 08:58D. Mikula2.203840J. Stach1.611111113LSep 1 · 08:00D. Mikula1.441171112102F. Zurek2.63911714123WSep 1 · 06:00D. Mikula2.63111110113J. Stach1.44581221LAug 28 · 17:29D. Mikula1.836850V. Cerny1.831111113LAug 28 · 16:00D. Mikula1.91918481V. Cerny1.80111611113WAug 28 · 15:30F. Zurek2.507101181D. Mikula1.5011123113
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