TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036442
Played Aug 29Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111191191113116
Vitezslav Bosak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeVitezslav Bosak to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Vitezslav Bosak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 95 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Vitezslav Bosak at 60.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 2–4 Vitezslav Bosak Pavel Varecha has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Bosak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Bosak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1389 vs Bosak 1419
Bosak
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 20% vs Bosak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 30% vs Bosak 50%
Bosak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha -3 · Bosak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Bosak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bosak form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 2.20 / Bosak 1.61
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Bosak)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036442
Varecha2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 27 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Bosak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 78 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it80% 60 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVarecha2wins
AwayBosak4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderBosak leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarechan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBosak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha2Bosak4n = 6Bosak took 4 of 6
S2Varecha3Bosak3n = 6split evenly
S3Varecha2Bosak4n = 6Bosak took 4 of 6
S4Varecha1Bosak4n = 5Bosak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricVarechaBosakV − BBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match33.039.3−6.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaBosakBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 214 vs 169 / 33750%50.2%107 / 214 vs 169 / 337Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BosakVarecha 2.20/Bosak 1.61
Hit
What we said
61.7%
Bosak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 29 · 16:59P. Varecha—115461V. Bosak—51111113
WAug 29 · 15:30P. Varecha—3111111113V. Bosak—11991362
WJul 27 · 19:30P. Varecha—71111133V. Bosak—1179111
LApr 27 · 13:00P. Varecha—9740V. Bosak—1111113
LApr 27 · 11:00P. Varecha—119951V. Bosak—81111113
LApr 11 · 07:00P. Varecha—711741V. Bosak—11511113
P. Varecha10
LSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113WSep 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.73111011113E. Sionkala2.00512781LSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WSep 1 · 09:29P. Varecha2.1011711113F. Zurek1.67511681LSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471WSep 1 · 07:30P. Varecha1.611111113D. Mikula2.206770WSep 1 · 06:30F. Zurek1.449480P. Varecha2.631111113LAug 29 · 16:59P. Varecha1.36115461V. Bosak3.0051111113LAug 29 · 16:30M. Jaksa1.671111113P. Varecha2.109770
V. Bosak10
LSep 6 · 17:03P. Hanel1.1711811113V. Bosak4.50411651LSep 6 · 16:30P. Hanel1.531111113V. Bosak2.387990LSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5051080R. Adam1.281112113LSep 6 · 14:30M. Blejchar1.4411119113V. Bosak2.63351181LSep 3 · 09:03V. Cerny1.531011119113V. Bosak2.3812451192LSep 3 · 08:00M. Blejchar1.501111113V. Bosak2.508970LSep 3 · 07:00F. Zurek2.38111110113V. Bosak1.53491241LSep 3 · 06:30V. Bosak1.7311891152V. Cerny2.00711116113LSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113WAug 29 · 16:59P. Varecha1.36115461V. Bosak3.0051111113
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