TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058279
Played Sep 2Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181171210––––
Alexandr Virag
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timePavel Varecha to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Alexandr Virag below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Varecha at 63.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 18–3 Alexandr Virag Alexandr Virag has won 3 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Varecha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-3 in 21
Varecha
Correct
gap of 15 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1419 vs Virag 1328
Varecha
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 60% vs Virag 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 40% vs Virag 60%
Virag
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha +1 · Virag +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Varecha) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Virag form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 1.25 / Virag 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Varecha)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058279
Varecha1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 45 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 31 of 41
Virag3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog22% won 11 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecha10wins
AwayVirag0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVarecha leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha100%6 of 6
AwayVirag0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha6Virag4n = 10Varecha took 6 of 10
S2Varecha7Virag3n = 10Varecha took 7 of 10
S3Varecha8Virag2n = 10Varecha took 8 of 10
S4Varecha8Virag0n = 8Varecha took 8 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarechaViragVarecha − ViragBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.330.4+10.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaViragBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 218 vs 134 / 28350.9%47.4%111 / 218 vs 134 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarechaVarecha 1.25/Virag 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Varecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha—1111123A. Virag—87100
WJun 19 · 08:58P. Varecha—81111113A. Virag—113891
WJun 19 · 08:30P. Varecha—11811113A. Virag—711651
WMay 25 · 09:30P. Varecha—671111113A. Virag—11117662
WMay 25 · 08:00P. Varecha—71111113A. Virag—111991
WMay 22 · 08:00P. Varecha—11119113A. Virag—831171
WMay 14 · 09:30P. Varecha—1111203A. Virag—76180
WMay 14 · 06:30P. Varecha—111111113A. Virag—137881
WApr 9 · 11:30P. Varecha—11119113A. Virag—341171
WMar 30 · 10:00P. Varecha—11811113A. Virag—611911
P. Varecha10
LSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113WSep 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.73111011113E. Sionkala2.00512781LSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 1 · 09:29P. Varecha2.1011711113F. Zurek1.67511681LSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471WSep 1 · 07:30P. Varecha1.611111113D. Mikula2.206770WSep 1 · 06:30F. Zurek1.449480P. Varecha2.631111113LAug 29 · 16:59P. Varecha1.36115461V. Bosak3.0051111113LAug 29 · 16:30M. Jaksa1.671111113P. Varecha2.109770WAug 29 · 15:30P. Varecha2.203111111113V. Bosak1.6111991362
A. Virag10
LSep 2 · 09:00E. Sionkala1.44811811113A. Virag2.6311811952WSep 2 · 08:30A. Virag1.571111123Z. Zientek2.2577100LSep 2 · 07:00A. Virag2.2091020E. Sionkala1.611112113WAug 22 · 09:30M. Kolek1.805811121A. Virag1.9111113143LAug 22 · 08:30M. Kolek2.101111113A. Virag1.679760WAug 22 · 07:30A. Virag2.001141110113F. Zurek1.7361141272WAug 22 · 06:30T. Hrabec1.408101121A. Virag2.7511127113LAug 12 · 13:30A. Virag1.5596111172M. Kolek2.20111199113WAug 12 · 12:30M. Kolek2.25481191A. Virag1.5711118113WAug 12 · 11:30A. Virag1.6791111113Z. Zientek2.10118821
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