TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12403889
Played Aug 12Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411811118911––
Alexandr Virag
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeAlexandr Virag to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Alexandr Virag below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Alexandr Virag at 57.4%
73 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 1–5 Alexandr Virag Matyas Kolek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:23What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Virag
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Virag
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1400 vs Virag 1343
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 80% vs Virag 60%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Virag 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +3 · Virag +1
Kolek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Virag) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.25 / Virag 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kolek)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12403889
Kolek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 33 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Virag1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 61 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it68% 34 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolek1wins
AwayVirag5wins
1 of 6 to a deciderVirag leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek25%1 of 4
AwayViragn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek4Virag2n = 6Kolek took 4 of 6
S2Kolek3Virag3n = 6split evenly
S3Kolek0Virag6n = 6Virag took 6 of 6
S4Kolek2Virag4n = 6Virag took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away467%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolekViragK − VBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.042.7−4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekViragBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 207 vs 146 / 29752.7%49.2%109 / 207 vs 146 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ViragKolek 2.25/Virag 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Virag · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Virag won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 28 · 09:28M. Kolek—9119101A. Virag—11811123
LJul 28 · 07:00M. Kolek—117961A. Virag—81111113
LJun 5 · 13:30M. Kolek—11911101A. Virag—91113123
LJun 5 · 10:30M. Kolek—15951262A. Virag—13111110113
LMay 25 · 07:00M. Kolek—212841A. Virag—111011113
WMay 22 · 06:30M. Kolek—11119113A. Virag—721191
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 08:30M. Kolek2.63119911112R. Kvasnicka1.44711117133
A. Virag10
LSep 2 · 09:00E. Sionkala1.44811811113A. Virag2.6311811952WSep 2 · 08:30A. Virag1.571111123Z. Zientek2.2577100LSep 2 · 07:00A. Virag2.2091020E. Sionkala1.611112113LSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WAug 22 · 09:30M. Kolek1.805811121A. Virag1.9111113143LAug 22 · 08:30M. Kolek2.101111113A. Virag1.679760WAug 22 · 07:30A. Virag2.001141110113F. Zurek1.7361141272WAug 22 · 06:30T. Hrabec1.408101121A. Virag2.7511127113LAug 12 · 13:30A. Virag1.5596111172M. Kolek2.20111199113WAug 12 · 11:30A. Virag1.6791111113Z. Zientek2.10118821
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