TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470448
Played Aug 22Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Alexandr Virag
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeAlexandr Virag to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Alexandr Virag below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Alexandr Virag at 54.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 2–6 Alexandr Virag Matyas Kolek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Virag
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Virag
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1352 vs Virag 1374
Virag
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 20% vs Virag 80%
Virag
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Virag 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Virag +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Virag) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Virag form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.10 / Virag 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Virag)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470448
Kolek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 37 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Virag1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 63 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it67% 35 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKolek2wins
AwayVirag6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderVirag leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek40%2 of 5
AwayVirag100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek5Virag3n = 8Kolek took 5 of 8
S2Kolek4Virag4n = 8split evenly
S3Kolek1Virag7n = 8Virag took 7 of 8
S4Kolek2Virag6n = 8Virag took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away563%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKolekViragK − VBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.942.6−3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekViragBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 217 vs 136 / 28552.5%47.7%114 / 217 vs 136 / 285Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ViragKolek 2.10/Virag 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.8%
Virag · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 12 · 13:30M. Kolek—111199113A. Virag—96111172
LAug 12 · 12:30M. Kolek—481191A. Virag—11118113
LJul 28 · 09:28M. Kolek—9119101A. Virag—11811123
LJul 28 · 07:00M. Kolek—117961A. Virag—81111113
LJun 5 · 13:30M. Kolek—11911101A. Virag—91113123
LJun 5 · 10:30M. Kolek—15951262A. Virag—13111110113
LMay 25 · 07:00M. Kolek—212841A. Virag—111011113
WMay 22 · 06:30M. Kolek—11119113A. Virag—721191
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 08:30M. Kolek2.63119911112R. Kvasnicka1.44711117133
A. Virag10
LSep 2 · 09:00E. Sionkala1.44811811113A. Virag2.6311811952WSep 2 · 08:30A. Virag1.571111123Z. Zientek2.2577100LSep 2 · 07:00A. Virag2.2091020E. Sionkala1.611112113LSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WAug 22 · 09:30M. Kolek1.805811121A. Virag1.9111113143WAug 22 · 07:30A. Virag2.001141110113F. Zurek1.7361141272WAug 22 · 06:30T. Hrabec1.408101121A. Virag2.7511127113LAug 12 · 13:30A. Virag1.5596111172M. Kolek2.20111199113WAug 12 · 12:30M. Kolek2.25481191A. Virag1.5711118113WAug 12 · 11:30A. Virag1.6791111113Z. Zientek2.10118821
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