TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036189
Played Aug 29Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1179119111171113
Radim Kvasnicka
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:40 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeRadim Kvasnicka to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Radim Kvasnicka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 100 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Radim Kvasnicka at 65.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 1–4 Radim Kvasnicka Matyas Kolek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kvasnicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kvasnicka
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1336 vs Kvasnicka 1389
Kvasnicka
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 40% vs Kvasnicka 20%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 30% vs Kvasnicka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -3 · Kvasnicka -1
Kolek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kvasnicka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kvasnicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.63 / Kvasnicka 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kvasnicka)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036189
Kolek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 38 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Kvasnicka1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 21 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKolek1wins
AwayKvasnicka4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKvasnicka leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKvasnicka100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek1Kvasnicka4n = 5Kvasnicka took 4 of 5
S2Kolek2Kvasnicka3n = 5Kvasnicka took 3 of 5
S3Kolek1Kvasnicka4n = 5Kvasnicka took 4 of 5
S4Kolek1Kvasnicka2n = 3Kvasnicka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricKolekKvasnickaKolek − KvasnickaBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match36.040.8−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKvasnickaBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 221 vs 52 / 10252%51%115 / 221 vs 52 / 102Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KvasnickaKolek 2.63/Kvasnicka 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Kvasnicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kvasnicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LMay 10 · 10:30M. Kolek—10111171R. Kvasnicka—12139113
LMay 7 · 21:30M. Kolek—8650R. Kvasnicka—1111113
LMay 7 · 18:00M. Kolek—8980R. Kvasnicka—1111113
LMay 2 · 19:30M. Kolek—81191182R. Kvasnicka—119117113
WApr 22 · 20:00M. Kolek—1111107113R. Kvasnicka—97121152
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek2.008990F. Zurek1.731111113
R. Kvasnicka10
WAug 30 · 09:00R. Kvasnicka1.61611711123Z. Zientek2.20117114102WAug 30 · 08:30Z. Zientek2.0011511892R. Kvasnicka1.73611811113WAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332LAug 30 · 06:30F. Zurek2.2511311113R. Kvasnicka1.57911691WAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka2.2510121011T. Hrabec1.57121012113WAug 29 · 06:30F. Zurek2.1010134131R. Kvasnicka1.67121111153LAug 23 · 09:04R. Kvasnicka1.531011117112F. Zurek2.38124911133LAug 23 · 08:30R. Kvasnicka1.73713111122D. Priesol2.00111540113LAug 23 · 07:00R. Kvasnicka2.00611391T. Hrabec1.7311911113
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