TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13041661
Played Aug 30Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101184111210––
Filip Zurek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:49 and never touched — 66.6% is still 66.6%
Graded at full timeFilip Zurek to win
66.6%
66.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Filip Zurek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Filip Zurek at 66.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 5–7 Filip Zurek Matyas Kolek has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Zurek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1315 vs Zurek 1442
Zurek
Wrong
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 20% vs Zurek 40%
Zurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 30% vs Zurek 50%
Zurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Zurek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Zurek) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.25 / Zurek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Zurek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13041661
Kolek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 38 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Zurek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 89 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek3wins
AwayZurek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZurek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek25%1 of 4
AwayZurek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek4Zurek6n = 10Zurek took 6 of 10
S2Kolek4Zurek6n = 10Zurek took 6 of 10
S3Kolek1Zurek9n = 10Zurek took 9 of 10
S4Kolek5Zurek3n = 8Kolek took 5 of 8
S5Kolek2Zurek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekZurekK − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.542.2−2.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekZurekBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 225 vs 282 / 56151.6%50.3%116 / 225 vs 282 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZurekKolek 2.25/Zurek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Zurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek—8990F. Zurek—1111113
LAug 22 · 06:00M. Kolek—85111182F. Zurek—111174113
WJun 5 · 11:30M. Kolek—311711113F. Zurek—11711692
LApr 19 · 12:00M. Kolek—11101071F. Zurek—81212113
LApr 16 · 11:00M. Kolek—119991F. Zurek—81111113
WApr 15 · 06:00M. Kolek—10231011113F. Zurek—122112782
WApr 14 · 12:00M. Kolek—11117113F. Zurek—971131
LApr 7 · 06:30M. Kolek—149671F. Zurek—121111113
LMar 30 · 06:30M. Kolek—611511122F. Zurek—116117143
LFeb 16 · 13:55M. Kolek—9570F. Zurek—1111113
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 08:30M. Kolek2.63119911112R. Kvasnicka1.44711117133LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek2.008990F. Zurek1.731111113
F. Zurek10
WSep 6 · 13:05F. Zurek1.7311911113D. Mikula2.00911771WSep 6 · 12:00F. Zurek2.201115113D. Mikula1.6161360LSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952LSep 6 · 10:00F. Zurek1.4411510161T. Hrabec2.6341112183WSep 5 · 21:02M. Blejchar1.44721171F. Zurek2.6311117113LSep 5 · 20:30R. Guliak1.919111011113F. Zurek1.8011812862LSep 5 · 19:30F. Zurek2.751111941V. Cerny1.4013711113LSep 5 · 18:30M. Blejchar1.571111113F. Zurek2.259540WAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek2.008990F. Zurek1.731111113
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