TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082588
Played Sep 6Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214116711119115
Filip Zurek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:50 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Zurek to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Filip Zurek below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 97 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Filip Zurek at 57.5%
97 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 6–8 Filip Zurek Matyas Kolek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Zurek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1369 vs Zurek 1422
Zurek
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Zurek 20%
Kolek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 30% vs Zurek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Zurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Zurek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zurek form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.38 / Zurek 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Zurek)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082588
Kolek2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 39 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Zurek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 89 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek4wins
AwayZurek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZurek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek40%2 of 5
AwayZurek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek5Zurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolek4Zurek6n = 10Zurek took 6 of 10
S3Kolek1Zurek9n = 10Zurek took 9 of 10
S4Kolek5Zurek3n = 8Kolek took 5 of 8
S5Kolek2Zurek1n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekZurekK − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.741.2−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekZurekBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 224 vs 289 / 57651.3%50.2%115 / 224 vs 289 / 576Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZurekKolek 2.38/Zurek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Zurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek—6580F. Zurek—1111113
WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek—12114123F. Zurek—10811101
LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek—8990F. Zurek—1111113
LAug 22 · 06:00M. Kolek—85111182F. Zurek—111174113
WJun 5 · 11:30M. Kolek—311711113F. Zurek—11711692
LApr 19 · 12:00M. Kolek—11101071F. Zurek—81212113
LApr 16 · 11:00M. Kolek—119991F. Zurek—81111113
WApr 15 · 06:00M. Kolek—10231011113F. Zurek—122112782
WApr 14 · 12:00M. Kolek—11117113F. Zurek—971131
LApr 7 · 06:30M. Kolek—149671F. Zurek—121111113
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332WAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282LAug 29 · 09:07R. Kvasnicka2.00611716113M. Kolek1.73118111432LAug 29 · 08:30M. Kolek2.63119911112R. Kvasnicka1.44711117133LAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek2.008990F. Zurek1.731111113
F. Zurek10
WSep 6 · 13:05F. Zurek1.7311911113D. Mikula2.00911771WSep 6 · 12:00F. Zurek2.201115113D. Mikula1.6161360LSep 6 · 10:00F. Zurek1.4411510161T. Hrabec2.6341112183WSep 5 · 21:02M. Blejchar1.44721171F. Zurek2.6311117113LSep 5 · 20:30R. Guliak1.919111011113F. Zurek1.8011812862LSep 5 · 19:30F. Zurek2.751111941V. Cerny1.4013711113LSep 5 · 18:30M. Blejchar1.571111113F. Zurek2.259540WAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113LAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101WAug 29 · 07:00M. Kolek2.008990F. Zurek1.731111113
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