TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12412057
Played Aug 12Finished
Alexandr Virag
Home
1.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911611119119711
Matyas Kolek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeAlexandr Virag to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlexandr Virag above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Alexandr Virag at 65.4%
95 points played in total.
H2H Alexandr Virag 6–1 Matyas Kolek Matyas Kolek has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:04What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Virag
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Virag
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Virag 1357 vs Kolek 1386
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Virag 60% vs Kolek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Virag 60% vs Kolek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Virag +2 · Kolek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Virag) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVirag 1.55 / Kolek 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Virag)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12412057
Virag1.55
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 61 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it68% 34 of 50
Kolek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 33 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVirag6wins
AwayKolek1wins
1 of 7 to a deciderVirag leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVirag100%3 of 3
AwayKolek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Virag3Kolek4n = 7Kolek took 4 of 7
S2Virag4Kolek3n = 7Virag took 4 of 7
S3Virag6Kolek1n = 7Virag took 6 of 7
S4Virag5Kolek2n = 7Virag took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home571%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricViragKolekV − KBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match42.437.1+5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricViragKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 298 vs 108 / 20749.3%52.2%147 / 298 vs 108 / 207Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ViragVirag 1.55/Kolek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.2%
Virag · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 12 · 12:30A. Virag—11118113M. Kolek—481191
WJul 28 · 09:28A. Virag—11811123M. Kolek—9119101
WJul 28 · 07:00A. Virag—81111113M. Kolek—117961
WJun 5 · 13:30A. Virag—91113123M. Kolek—11911101
WJun 5 · 10:30A. Virag—13111110113M. Kolek—15951262
WMay 25 · 07:00A. Virag—111011113M. Kolek—212841
LMay 22 · 06:30A. Virag—721191M. Kolek—11119113
A. Virag10
LSep 2 · 09:00E. Sionkala1.44811811113A. Virag2.6311811952WSep 2 · 08:30A. Virag1.571111123Z. Zientek2.2577100LSep 2 · 07:00A. Virag2.2091020E. Sionkala1.611112113LSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WAug 22 · 09:30M. Kolek1.805811121A. Virag1.9111113143LAug 22 · 08:30M. Kolek2.101111113A. Virag1.679760WAug 22 · 07:30A. Virag2.001141110113F. Zurek1.7361141272WAug 22 · 06:30T. Hrabec1.408101121A. Virag2.7511127113WAug 12 · 12:30M. Kolek2.25481191A. Virag1.5711118113WAug 12 · 11:30A. Virag1.6791111113Z. Zientek2.10118821
M. Kolek10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 30 · 07:30R. Kvasnicka1.5311101111113M. Kolek2.3841241332LAug 22 · 09:30M. Kolek1.805811121A. Virag1.9111113143WAug 22 · 08:30M. Kolek2.101111113A. Virag1.679760LAug 12 · 12:30M. Kolek2.25481191A. Virag1.5711118113
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