TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058932
Played Sep 2Finished
Alexandr Virag
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171171210––––
Zbynek Zientek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeAlexandr Virag to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexandr Virag above · Zbynek Zientek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 58 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Alexandr Virag at 65.6%
58 points played in total.
H2H Alexandr Virag 17–8 Zbynek Zientek Zbynek Zientek has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:07What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Virag
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Virag
Correct
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Virag 1335 vs Zientek 1355
Zientek
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Virag 40% vs Zientek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Virag 50% vs Zientek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Virag -2 · Zientek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Virag) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Virag form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVirag 1.57 / Zientek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Virag)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058932
Virag1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 59 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it65% 32 of 49
Zientek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 102 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back34% 38 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back19% 11 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVirag7wins
AwayZientek3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVirag leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVirag100%3 of 3
AwayZientek42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Virag3Zientek7n = 10Zientek took 7 of 10
S2Virag4Zientek6n = 10Zientek took 6 of 10
S3Virag8Zientek2n = 10Virag took 8 of 10
S4Virag4Zientek5n = 9Zientek took 5 of 9
S5Virag5Zientek1n = 6Virag took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricViragZientekV − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.939.3+2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricViragZientekBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 285 vs 190 / 38547.4%49.4%135 / 285 vs 190 / 385Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ViragVirag 1.57/Zientek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Virag · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Virag won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 11:30A. Virag—91111113Z. Zientek—118821
WAug 11 · 06:00A. Virag—711111113Z. Zientek—11681192
LAug 6 · 08:00A. Virag—811891Z. Zientek—11711113
WJul 28 · 08:00A. Virag—118119123Z. Zientek—411711102
WJul 20 · 12:59A. Virag—11811113Z. Zientek—911681
LJul 20 · 11:00A. Virag—8840Z. Zientek—1111113
LJun 8 · 07:00A. Virag—81111772Z. Zientek—118911113
WJun 6 · 13:29A. Virag—931211113Z. Zientek—111110682
WJun 6 · 12:00A. Virag—1091111113Z. Zientek—12113562
WJun 2 · 12:30A. Virag—119114113Z. Zientek—71111162
A. Virag10
LSep 2 · 09:00E. Sionkala1.44811811113A. Virag2.6311811952LSep 2 · 07:00A. Virag2.2091020E. Sionkala1.611112113LSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WAug 22 · 09:30M. Kolek1.805811121A. Virag1.9111113143LAug 22 · 08:30M. Kolek2.101111113A. Virag1.679760WAug 22 · 07:30A. Virag2.001141110113F. Zurek1.7361141272WAug 22 · 06:30T. Hrabec1.408101121A. Virag2.7511127113LAug 12 · 13:30A. Virag1.5596111172M. Kolek2.20111199113WAug 12 · 12:30M. Kolek2.25481191A. Virag1.5711118113WAug 12 · 11:30A. Virag1.6791111113Z. Zientek2.10118821
Z. Zientek10
WSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113WSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:30E. Sionkala1.36149571Z. Zientek3.00121111113LAug 30 · 09:00R. Kvasnicka1.61611711123Z. Zientek2.20117114102LAug 30 · 08:30Z. Zientek2.0011511892R. Kvasnicka1.73611811113LAug 30 · 07:00Z. Zientek2.00118681F. Zurek1.7391111113LAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282WAug 28 · 20:59Z. Zientek1.531114109123D. Tyn2.388121211102WAug 28 · 20:30Z. Zientek1.5717116113D. Tyn2.251561161LAug 12 · 11:30A. Virag1.6791111113Z. Zientek2.10118821
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