TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12460606
Played Aug 20Finished
Michal Derco
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181189111315411
Michal Blaha
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Blaha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Derco above · Michal Blaha below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 101 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Michal Blaha at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Michal Derco 0–4 Michal Blaha Michal Derco has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:31What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Blaha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Blaha
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derco 1242 vs Blaha 1199
Derco
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derco 60% vs Blaha 40%
Derco
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derco 50% vs Blaha 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derco -1 · Blaha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Blaha) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blaha form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerco 2.63 / Blaha 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Blaha)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12460606
Derco2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 16 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Blaha1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 31 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDerco0wins
AwayBlaha4wins
1 of 4 to a deciderBlaha leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDercon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBlaha100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derco1Blaha3n = 4Blaha took 3 of 4
S2Derco1Blaha3n = 4Blaha took 3 of 4
S3Derco2Blaha2n = 4split evenly
S4Derco0Blaha3n = 3Blaha took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricDercoBlahaD − BBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match31.543.0−11.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDercoBlahaBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 83 vs 89 / 17553%50.9%44 / 83 vs 89 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BlahaDerco 2.63/Blaha 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Blaha · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Blaha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco—111191342M. Blaha—881115113
LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco—1281121M. Blaha—14118113
LAug 16 · 20:00M. Derco—6460M. Blaha—1111113
LJul 10 · 18:00M. Derco—651171M. Blaha—11119113
M. Derco10
WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113LAug 16 · 06:00P. Banot1.611111113M. Derco2.209380WAug 10 · 12:58M. Derco2.3891111143D. Vavrecka1.531134121LAug 10 · 12:00P. Banot1.8311611113M. Derco1.83911421WAug 10 · 11:00V. Rybar1.801111111142M. Derco1.91131356113
M. Blaha10
WAug 29 · 21:30A. Kanak2.501176111M. Blaha1.4071111133WAug 29 · 20:00M. Blaha2.00671111113D. Vavrecka1.7311116462LAug 29 · 19:30A. Kanak3.0011114113M. Blaha1.36951171WAug 29 · 18:00M. Blaha1.441111113M. Stolba2.636530WAug 27 · 13:02M. Blaha1.8011116113M. Stolba1.91651171WAug 27 · 12:00M. Blaha1.83911119113Z. Luksa1.8311971192LAug 27 · 11:30D. Vavrecka1.6711116113M. Blaha2.10981191WAug 27 · 10:00M. Blaha1.67711911133M. Stolba2.10117117112WAug 22 · 21:04R. Adamczyk1.919101141M. Blaha1.8011128113WAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113
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