TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12391009
Played Aug 10Finished
Petr Banot
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611114112––
Michal Derco
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Banot above · Michal Derco below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 65 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Michal Derco at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Petr Banot 1–0 Michal Derco Michal Derco has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:09What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Derco
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Banot 1295 vs Derco 1262
Banot
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Banot 80% vs Derco 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Banot 80% vs Derco 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Banot +1 · Derco +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derco)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derco form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBanot 1.83 / Derco 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derco)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12391009
Banot1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Derco1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBanot1wins
AwayDerco0wins
Banot leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBanotDercoB − DBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.026.0+13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBanotDercoBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 95 vs 41 / 7946.3%51.9%44 / 95 vs 41 / 79Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DercoBanot 1.83/Derco 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Banot won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 10 · 12:00P. Banot—11611113M. Derco—911421
P. Banot10
LAug 20 · 21:00P. Banot1.8011913892D. Tyn1.918111111113LAug 20 · 20:30M. Levicky3.256111311133P. Banot1.331113118112LAug 20 · 19:30P. Banot2.63811561Z. Zientek1.4411711113WAug 20 · 18:30D. Tyn2.0081111392P. Banot1.73118911113WAug 18 · 08:58M. Levicky2.636410P. Banot1.441111113LAug 18 · 08:30Z. Zientek1.501111113P. Banot2.504690WAug 18 · 07:30P. Banot1.4411711113M. Levicky2.63811681LAug 18 · 06:30M. Kaspar1.7311811123P. Banot2.007116101WAug 16 · 09:29P. Banot1.5011119113M. Blaha2.50631161WAug 16 · 08:00P. Banot1.6191111113M. Blaha2.20116701
M. Derco10
WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113LAug 16 · 06:00P. Banot1.611111113M. Derco2.209380WAug 10 · 12:58M. Derco2.3891111143D. Vavrecka1.531134121WAug 10 · 11:00V. Rybar1.801111111142M. Derco1.91131356113
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