TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12391236
Played Aug 10Finished
Zdenek Luksa
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711511118116117
Josef Toth
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:08 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeZdenek Luksa to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Luksa above · Josef Toth below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Zdenek Luksa at 65.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Luksa 7–2 Josef Toth Josef Toth has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Luksa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Luksa
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Luksa 1224 vs Toth 1198
Luksa
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Luksa 20% vs Toth 40%
Toth
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Luksa 40% vs Toth 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Luksa -2 · Toth +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Luksa) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Toth form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLuksa 1.25 / Toth 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Luksa)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12391236
Luksa1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 21 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Toth3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 27 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLuksa7wins
AwayToth2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderLuksa leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLuksa83.3%5 of 6
AwayToth33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Luksa6Toth3n = 9Luksa took 6 of 9
S2Luksa6Toth3n = 9Luksa took 6 of 9
S3Luksa6Toth3n = 9Luksa took 6 of 9
S4Luksa5Toth1n = 6Luksa took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricLuksaTothL − TBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match39.633.8+5.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLuksaTothBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 109 vs 72 / 15842.2%45.6%46 / 109 vs 72 / 158Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LuksaLuksa 1.25/Toth 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Luksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Luksa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WMay 17 · 10:00Z. Luksa—1112113J. Toth—91070
WMay 7 · 10:00Z. Luksa—91111113J. Toth—114661
WMay 2 · 08:59Z. Luksa—91113113J. Toth—1191121
WMay 2 · 08:30Z. Luksa—1111113J. Toth—7990
WApr 25 · 20:30Z. Luksa—13911113J. Toth—1111671
LMar 24 · 08:30Z. Luksa—111171152J. Toth—813115113
WMar 1 · 15:00Z. Luksa—1111113J. Toth—8790
WFeb 27 · 14:30Z. Luksa—136911113J. Toth—111111962
LFeb 27 · 12:30Z. Luksa—711941J. Toth—11511113
Z. Luksa10
LAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113LAug 27 · 12:00M. Blaha1.83911119113Z. Luksa1.8311971192WAug 27 · 11:00M. Stolba1.67611261Z. Luksa2.1011911113WAug 27 · 10:30Z. Luksa1.6712711113D. Vavrecka2.101011791WAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:00D. Vavrecka1.8071112762Z. Luksa1.911181011113WAug 23 · 07:00A. Kanak1.75121330Z. Luksa1.851415113LAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941LAug 10 · 07:00Z. Luksa1.80541261R. Adamczyk1.91111110113
J. Toth10
LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113LAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113WAug 15 · 11:30J. Foltynek2.63791181J. Toth1.4411116113LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth2.00781161I. Palmi1.7311116113WAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941WAug 10 · 07:30J. Toth2.251112310113D. Vavrecka1.57810111292
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