TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020140
Played Aug 27Finished
Zdenek Luksa
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210711117119––
David Vavrecka
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:14 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeZdenek Luksa to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Luksa above · David Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Zdenek Luksa at 60.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Luksa 5–4 David Vavrecka David Vavrecka has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Luksa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Luksa 1228 vs Vavrecka 1176
Luksa
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Luksa 60% vs Vavrecka 20%
Luksa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Luksa 50% vs Vavrecka 20%
Luksa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Luksa +3 · Vavrecka -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Luksa) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLuksa 1.67 / Vavrecka 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Luksa)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020140
Luksa1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Vavrecka2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 10 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLuksa5wins
AwayVavrecka4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderLuksa leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLuksa80%4 of 5
AwayVavrecka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Luksa5Vavrecka4n = 9Luksa took 5 of 9
S2Luksa5Vavrecka4n = 9Luksa took 5 of 9
S3Luksa4Vavrecka5n = 9Vavrecka took 5 of 9
S4Luksa2Vavrecka4n = 6Vavrecka took 4 of 6
S5Luksa2Vavrecka1n = 3Luksa took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricLuksaVavreckaL − VBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.439.1−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLuksaVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 99 vs 52 / 11747.5%44.4%47 / 99 vs 52 / 117Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LuksaLuksa 1.67/Vavrecka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Luksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Luksa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 10 · 06:00Z. Luksa—81070D. Vavrecka—1112113
WAug 9 · 08:59Z. Luksa—11126113D. Vavrecka—7101141
WAug 9 · 06:30Z. Luksa—91113123D. Vavrecka—11911101
WMay 1 · 17:30Z. Luksa—1212113D. Vavrecka—101080
LMay 1 · 15:30Z. Luksa—8760D. Vavrecka—1111113
LApr 25 · 21:30Z. Luksa—11713942D. Vavrecka—4111111113
LApr 25 · 19:00Z. Luksa—13121161D. Vavrecka—15149113
WMar 7 · 19:00Z. Luksa—111187113D. Vavrecka—98111162
WMar 1 · 16:30Z. Luksa—111158113D. Vavrecka—96111152
Z. Luksa10
LAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113LAug 27 · 12:00M. Blaha1.83911119113Z. Luksa1.8311971192WAug 27 · 11:00M. Stolba1.67611261Z. Luksa2.1011911113WAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:00D. Vavrecka1.8071112762Z. Luksa1.911181011113WAug 23 · 07:00A. Kanak1.75121330Z. Luksa1.851415113LAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941WAug 10 · 08:30Z. Luksa1.25751111113J. Toth3.7511118672LAug 10 · 07:00Z. Luksa1.80541261R. Adamczyk1.91111110113
D. Vavrecka10
LSep 6 · 13:00I. Kolenciak1.8311711113D. Vavrecka1.83411851LSep 6 · 12:00I. Kolenciak2.00412411113D. Vavrecka1.73111011892LSep 6 · 11:00A. Kanak1.6711711173D. Vavrecka2.108112151LSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113LAug 29 · 20:59D. Vavrecka1.53111081122M. Stolba2.38612115113LAug 29 · 20:00M. Blaha2.00671111113D. Vavrecka1.7311116462WAug 29 · 19:00M. Stolba2.20571191D. Vavrecka1.6111115113LAug 29 · 18:30D. Vavrecka1.7311961342A. Kanak2.003111111113WAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113LAug 23 · 08:00D. Vavrecka1.8071112762Z. Luksa1.911181011113
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