TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098761
Played Sep 9Finished
Ivo Palmi
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311119116––––
Zdenek Luksa
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Luksa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvo Palmi above · Zdenek Luksa below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 61 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Zdenek Luksa at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Ivo Palmi 3–1 Zdenek Luksa Zdenek Luksa has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:49What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Luksa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Palmi
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palmi 1102 vs Luksa 1206
Luksa
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palmi 40% vs Luksa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palmi 50% vs Luksa 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Palmi -3 · Luksa -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Luksa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Luksa form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalmi 2.00 / Luksa 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Luksa)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098761
Palmi2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Luksa1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 17 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePalmi3wins
AwayLuksa1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderPalmi leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePalmi75%3 of 4
AwayLuksan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palmi4Luksa0n = 4Palmi took 4 of 4
S2Palmi2Luksa2n = 4split evenly
S3Palmi1Luksa3n = 4Luksa took 3 of 4
S4Palmi3Luksa1n = 4Palmi took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPalmiLuksaP − LBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match44.240.8+3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPalmiLuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 130 vs 49 / 10440.8%47.1%53 / 130 vs 49 / 104Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LuksaPalmi 2.00/Luksa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Luksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Palmi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 17 · 12:00I. Palmi—1310711123Z. Luksa—1112117102
WMay 16 · 11:00I. Palmi—12116113Z. Luksa—1071131
WMay 13 · 10:00I. Palmi—12116123Z. Luksa—10611101
LJul 15 · 10:00I. Palmi—11511792Z. Luksa—411711113
I. Palmi10
WSep 9 · 13:01I. Palmi1.6711912113Z. Luksa2.109111041LSep 9 · 12:30J. Toth2.101110911123I. Palmi1.67612118102LSep 9 · 10:30I. Kolenciak1.53411812113I. Palmi2.38119111072LSep 6 · 13:30A. Kanak1.401111113I. Palmi2.758640LSep 6 · 12:30A. Kanak1.80111011113I. Palmi1.91712591WSep 6 · 11:30I. Palmi3.0011511113I. Kolenciak1.36711781WSep 6 · 10:30D. Vavrecka1.8011971192I. Palmi1.91811117113WAug 26 · 16:58I. Palmi1.531111113J. Foltynek2.383470WAug 26 · 16:30J. Foltynek2.105111191I. Palmi1.6711913113LAug 26 · 15:30I. Palmi1.83611691S. Blabla1.8311811113
Z. Luksa10
LSep 9 · 13:01I. Palmi1.6711912113Z. Luksa2.109111041LSep 9 · 12:00Z. Luksa1.83111191192I. Kolenciak1.83361113113LSep 9 · 10:00Z. Luksa1.36411971J. Toth3.0011511113LAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113LAug 27 · 12:00M. Blaha1.83911119113Z. Luksa1.8311971192WAug 27 · 11:00M. Stolba1.67611261Z. Luksa2.1011911113WAug 27 · 10:30Z. Luksa1.6712711113D. Vavrecka2.101011791WAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:00D. Vavrecka1.8071112762Z. Luksa1.911181011113WAug 23 · 07:00A. Kanak1.75121330Z. Luksa1.851415113
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