TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098838
Played Sep 9Finished
Zdenek Luksa
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411115911711––
Josef Toth
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeZdenek Luksa to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Luksa above · Josef Toth below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Zdenek Luksa at 58.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Luksa 9–4 Josef Toth Josef Toth has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:21What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Luksa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Luksa
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Luksa 1218 vs Toth 1202
Luksa
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Luksa 60% vs Toth 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Luksa 60% vs Toth 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Luksa -2 · Toth -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Luksa) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Toth form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLuksa 1.36 / Toth 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Luksa)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098838
Luksa1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 17 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Toth3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 30 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back31% 8 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLuksa7wins
AwayToth3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLuksa leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLuksa66.7%4 of 6
AwayToth25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Luksa6Toth4n = 10Luksa took 6 of 10
S2Luksa5Toth5n = 10split evenly
S3Luksa7Toth3n = 10Luksa took 7 of 10
S4Luksa7Toth1n = 8Luksa took 7 of 8
S5Luksa1Toth2n = 3Toth took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLuksaTothL − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.434.9+5.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLuksaTothBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 103 vs 77 / 16847.6%45.8%49 / 103 vs 77 / 168Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LuksaLuksa 1.36/Toth 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.8%
Luksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Toth won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 09:30Z. Luksa—11711113J. Toth—711331
LAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa—91171182J. Toth—115118113
LAug 10 · 08:58Z. Luksa—117941J. Toth—91111113
WAug 10 · 08:30Z. Luksa—751111113J. Toth—11118672
WMay 17 · 10:00Z. Luksa—1112113J. Toth—91070
WMay 7 · 10:00Z. Luksa—91111113J. Toth—114661
WMay 2 · 08:59Z. Luksa—91113113J. Toth—1191121
WMay 2 · 08:30Z. Luksa—1111113J. Toth—7990
WApr 25 · 20:30Z. Luksa—13911113J. Toth—1111671
LMar 24 · 08:30Z. Luksa—111171152J. Toth—813115113
Z. Luksa10
LAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113LAug 27 · 12:00M. Blaha1.83911119113Z. Luksa1.8311971192WAug 27 · 11:00M. Stolba1.67611261Z. Luksa2.1011911113WAug 27 · 10:30Z. Luksa1.6712711113D. Vavrecka2.101011791WAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:00D. Vavrecka1.8071112762Z. Luksa1.911181011113WAug 23 · 07:00A. Kanak1.75121330Z. Luksa1.851415113LAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941WAug 10 · 08:30Z. Luksa1.25751111113J. Toth3.7511118672
J. Toth10
LAug 23 · 09:30J. Toth2.63711331Z. Luksa1.4411711113WAug 23 · 08:30A. Kanak1.615980J. Toth2.201111113WAug 23 · 07:30J. Toth2.201111310113D. Vavrecka1.6189111242WAug 23 · 06:30Z. Luksa1.4091171182J. Toth2.75115118113LAug 15 · 12:59J. Toth1.3710970J. Foltynek2.871211113LAug 15 · 12:00J. Toth1.6711114842M. Stolba2.10991111113WAug 15 · 11:30J. Foltynek2.63791181J. Toth1.4411116113LAug 15 · 10:00J. Toth2.00781161I. Palmi1.7311116113WAug 10 · 08:58J. Toth3.5091111113Z. Luksa1.28117941LAug 10 · 08:30Z. Luksa1.25751111113J. Toth3.7511118672
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