TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13094905
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Vales
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1179111210117––
Vojtech Koubek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Vojtech Koubek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vojtech Koubek at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Vales 17–10 Vojtech Koubek Vojtech Koubek has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Vales beat Koubek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:57What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vales
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-10 in 27
Vales
Correct
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vales 1872 vs Koubek 1875
Koubek
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vales 20% vs Koubek 40%
Koubek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vales 30% vs Koubek 60%
Koubek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vales -2 · Koubek -3
Koubek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vales) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 1.73 / Koubek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vales)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13094905
Vales1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 119 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it71% 77 of 109
Koubek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales7wins
AwayKoubek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales100%5 of 5
AwayKoubek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales5Koubek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vales5Koubek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vales6Koubek4n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S4Vales4Koubek3n = 7Vales took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesKoubekV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.335.2+2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesKoubekBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 519 vs 193 / 37654.5%51.3%283 / 519 vs 193 / 376Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ValesVales 1.73/Koubek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 21:00J. Vales—11912113V. Koubek—7111071
WSep 7 · 18:00J. Vales—611117123V. Koubek—116711102
LSep 7 · 14:30J. Vales—6101161V. Koubek—11125113
LJun 8 · 17:01J. Vales—11690V. Koubek—1311113
WJun 8 · 16:00J. Vales—11311113V. Koubek—611581
WMay 19 · 16:30J. Vales—5111111113V. Koubek—11861362
WApr 27 · 15:00J. Vales—1111123V. Koubek—99100
WApr 16 · 17:30J. Vales—111110113V. Koubek—671251
LApr 16 · 15:00J. Vales—9670V. Koubek—1111113
WApr 7 · 17:30J. Vales—11117113V. Koubek—591181
J. Vales10
LSep 7 · 20:00J. Vales2.63641181J. Medek1.4411117113LSep 7 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.401111113J. Vales2.756890WSep 7 · 18:00J. Vales1.67611117123V. Koubek2.10116711102LSep 7 · 16:59J. Medek1.4491111113J. Vales2.63116871LSep 7 · 16:30J. Zajicek1.4011119133J. Vales2.753911111LSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113
V. Koubek10
LSep 7 · 20:30V. Koubek2.637390J. Zajicek1.441111113LSep 7 · 19:00V. Koubek2.63981171J. Medek1.4411117113LSep 7 · 18:00J. Vales1.67611117123V. Koubek2.10116711102WSep 7 · 17:29V. Koubek3.001112113J. Zajicek1.3691080WSep 7 · 16:00J. Medek1.44711911122V. Koubek2.63114113143WSep 7 · 15:00J. Zajicek1.4411127882V. Koubek2.639101111113WSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113
Upcoming Matches
J. Vales
Nothing scheduled
V. Koubek
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.