TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13094025
Played Sep 7Finished
Josef Medek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116118117––
Jakub Vales
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingJosef Medek above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7
74 points played in total.
H2H Josef Medek 20–9 Jakub Vales Jakub Vales has won 9 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Medek beat Vales 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Medek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMedek 1.44 / Vales 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Medek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13094025
Medek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 121 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 108
Vales2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 36 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMedek5wins
AwayVales5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMedek66.7%4 of 6
AwayVales75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Medek6Vales4n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S2Medek4Vales6n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S3Medek5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S4Medek4Vales2n = 6Medek took 4 of 6
S5Medek2Vales3n = 5Vales took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMedekValesM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.436.7+1.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMedekValesBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 525 vs 281 / 51457.7%54.7%303 / 525 vs 281 / 514Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMedek 1.44/Vales 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Medek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 15:30J. Medek—6111111113J. Vales—11139562
WSep 5 · 16:30J. Medek—1111113J. Vales—7590
WSep 5 · 13:30J. Medek—11116113J. Vales—591181
LSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek—61290J. Vales—1114113
LSep 4 · 19:00J. Medek—76111162J. Vales—111145113
WJul 13 · 21:30J. Medek—1111113J. Vales—6790
LJul 13 · 19:00J. Medek—11971182J. Vales—511115113
LJun 26 · 20:30J. Medek—5880J. Vales—1111113
WJun 18 · 21:28J. Medek—118117113J. Vales—91151182
LJun 18 · 20:00J. Medek—111159102J. Vales—691111123
J. Medek10
LSep 7 · 16:00J. Medek1.44711911122V. Koubek2.63114113143WSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek1.83111171172J. Zajicek1.83139115113WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750LSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113
J. Vales10
LSep 7 · 16:30J. Zajicek1.4011119133J. Vales2.753911111LSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113
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