TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086830
Played Sep 7Finished
Vojtech Koubek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210511116––
Jakub Vales
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVojtech Koubek above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Vales at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koubek 9–15 Jakub Vales Vojtech Koubek has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vales
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Vales
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koubek 1896 vs Vales 1910
Vales
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koubek 80% vs Vales 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koubek 80% vs Vales 50%
Koubek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koubek +1 · Vales +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vales) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoubek 2.20 / Vales 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vales)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086830
Koubek2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Vales1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 119 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it71% 77 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoubek4wins
AwayVales6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoubek80%4 of 5
AwayVales100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koubek5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S2Koubek4Vales6n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S3Koubek5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S4Koubek3Vales3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoubekValesK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.135.4−2.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoubekValesBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 368 vs 281 / 51151.4%55%189 / 368 vs 281 / 511Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ValesKoubek 2.20/Vales 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koubek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 8 · 17:01V. Koubek—1311113J. Vales—11690
LJun 8 · 16:00V. Koubek—611581J. Vales—11311113
LMay 19 · 16:30V. Koubek—11861362J. Vales—5111111113
LApr 27 · 15:00V. Koubek—99100J. Vales—1111123
LApr 16 · 17:30V. Koubek—671251J. Vales—111110113
WApr 16 · 15:00V. Koubek—1111113J. Vales—9670
LApr 7 · 17:30V. Koubek—591181J. Vales—11117113
WApr 7 · 16:00V. Koubek—11116113J. Vales—881191
WMar 23 · 18:30V. Koubek—11611113J. Vales—911781
LMar 23 · 17:00V. Koubek—9650J. Vales—1111113
V. Koubek10
WSep 7 · 15:00J. Zajicek1.4411127882V. Koubek2.639101111113WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123WAug 31 · 16:00V. Koubek1.4011115113J. Kycelt2.75141171WAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113LAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek1.736740E. Mares2.001111113WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek1.6711139113E. Mares2.107111191
J. Vales10
LSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113
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