TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087390
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Vales
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161311911511611
Josef Medek
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:51 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Josef Medek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Josef Medek at 68.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Vales 9–19 Josef Medek Jakub Vales has won 9 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Medek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-19 in 28
Medek
Correct
gap of 10 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vales 1898 vs Medek 1984
Medek
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vales 60% vs Medek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vales 40% vs Medek 70%
Medek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vales -1 · Medek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Medek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Medek form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 2.75 / Medek 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Medek)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087390
Vales2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 36 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Medek1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 121 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales6wins
AwayMedek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales100%4 of 4
AwayMedek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales4Medek6n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S2Vales5Medek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vales6Medek4n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S4Vales3Medek3n = 6split evenly
S5Vales3Medek1n = 4Vales took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesMedekV − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.437.3−0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesMedekBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 512 vs 302 / 52354.9%57.7%281 / 512 vs 302 / 523Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekVales 2.75/Medek 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Medek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales—7590J. Medek—1111113
LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales—591181J. Medek—11116113
WSep 5 · 11:00J. Vales—1114113J. Medek—61290
WSep 4 · 19:00J. Vales—111145113J. Medek—76111162
LJul 13 · 21:30J. Vales—6790J. Medek—1111113
WJul 13 · 19:00J. Vales—511115113J. Medek—11971182
WJun 26 · 20:30J. Vales—1111113J. Medek—5880
LJun 18 · 21:28J. Vales—91151182J. Medek—118117113
WJun 18 · 20:00J. Vales—691111123J. Medek—111159102
WMay 21 · 18:30J. Vales—11412143J. Medek—61110121
J. Vales10
LSep 7 · 16:30J. Zajicek1.4011119133J. Vales2.753911111LSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592
J. Medek10
LSep 7 · 16:00J. Medek1.44711911122V. Koubek2.63114113143LSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek1.83111171172J. Zajicek1.83139115113WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750LSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113WSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113
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