TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087556
Played Sep 7Finished
Josef Medek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111149111131214
Vojtech Koubek
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJosef Medek above · Vojtech Koubek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 93 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Josef Medek at 65.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Josef Medek 26–15 Vojtech Koubek Vojtech Koubek has won 15 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Medek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-15 in 41
Medek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Medek 1984 vs Koubek 1917
Medek
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Medek 60% vs Koubek 80%
Koubek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Medek 70% vs Koubek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Medek -1 · Koubek +3
Koubek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Medek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMedek 1.44 / Koubek 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Medek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087556
Medek1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 121 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 108
Koubek2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMedek7wins
AwayKoubek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMedek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMedek83.3%5 of 6
AwayKoubek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Medek6Koubek4n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S2Medek5Koubek5n = 10split evenly
S3Medek5Koubek5n = 10split evenly
S4Medek6Koubek4n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S5Medek3Koubek1n = 4Medek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMedekKoubekM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.436.7+4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMedekKoubekBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 523 vs 191 / 37057.7%51.6%302 / 523 vs 191 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMedek 1.44/Koubek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Koubek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 14:28J. Medek—681141V. Koubek—11116113
WAug 25 · 15:30J. Medek—712118113V. Koubek—111091122
WAug 11 · 18:30J. Medek—115112113V. Koubek—41161152
LJun 23 · 16:30J. Medek—116101172V. Koubek—911128113
WJun 2 · 15:30J. Medek—81111113V. Koubek—113631
WMay 31 · 20:00J. Medek—11126113V. Koubek—8101171
WMay 24 · 16:30J. Medek—11611113V. Koubek—411671
WMay 19 · 15:30J. Medek—119611113V. Koubek—71111442
WMay 17 · 17:28J. Medek—111116113V. Koubek—651851
LMay 17 · 14:30J. Medek—911771V. Koubek—11611113
J. Medek10
WSep 7 · 16:59J. Medek1.4491111113J. Vales2.63116871WSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek1.83111171172J. Zajicek1.83139115113WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750LSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113
V. Koubek10
WSep 7 · 15:00J. Zajicek1.4411127882V. Koubek2.639101111113WSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123WAug 31 · 16:00V. Koubek1.4011115113J. Kycelt2.75141171WAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113LAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek1.736740E. Mares2.001111113
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