TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087557
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Vales
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111161177111210
Vojtech Koubek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Vojtech Koubek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 92 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Vales at 58.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Vales 15–10 Vojtech Koubek Vojtech Koubek has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Koubek beat Vales 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vales
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-10 in 25
Vales
Correct
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vales 1868 vs Koubek 1940
Koubek
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vales 20% vs Koubek 100%
Koubek
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vales 40% vs Koubek 90%
Koubek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vales -4 · Koubek +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vales) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 1.67 / Koubek 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Koubek)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087557
Vales1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 119 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it71% 77 of 109
Koubek2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales5wins
AwayKoubek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales100%4 of 4
AwayKoubek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales4Koubek6n = 10Koubek took 6 of 10
S2Vales5Koubek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vales5Koubek5n = 10split evenly
S4Vales3Koubek4n = 7Koubek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesKoubekV − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.0+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesKoubekBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 515 vs 193 / 37254.6%51.9%281 / 515 vs 193 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ValesVales 1.67/Koubek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 14:30J. Vales—6101161V. Koubek—11125113
LJun 8 · 17:01J. Vales—11690V. Koubek—1311113
WJun 8 · 16:00J. Vales—11311113V. Koubek—611581
WMay 19 · 16:30J. Vales—5111111113V. Koubek—11861362
WApr 27 · 15:00J. Vales—1111123V. Koubek—99100
WApr 16 · 17:30J. Vales—111110113V. Koubek—671251
LApr 16 · 15:00J. Vales—9670V. Koubek—1111113
WApr 7 · 17:30J. Vales—11117113V. Koubek—591181
LApr 7 · 16:00J. Vales—881191V. Koubek—11116113
LMar 23 · 18:30J. Vales—911781V. Koubek—11611113
J. Vales10
LSep 7 · 16:59J. Medek1.4491111113J. Vales2.63116871LSep 7 · 16:30J. Zajicek1.4011119133J. Vales2.753911111LSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113
V. Koubek10
LSep 7 · 19:00V. Koubek2.63981171J. Medek1.4411117113WSep 7 · 17:29V. Koubek3.001112113J. Zajicek1.3691080WSep 7 · 16:00J. Medek1.44711911122V. Koubek2.63114113143WSep 7 · 15:00J. Zajicek1.4411127882V. Koubek2.639101111113WSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123
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