TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087594
Played Sep 7Finished
Vojtech Koubek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811117711––
Josef Medek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:24 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koubek above · Josef Medek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Josef Medek at 65.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koubek 16–26 Josef Medek Vojtech Koubek has won 16 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Koubek beat Medek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Medek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-26 in 42
Medek
Correct
gap of 10 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koubek 1927 vs Medek 1973
Medek
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koubek 80% vs Medek 60%
Koubek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koubek 80% vs Medek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koubek -1 · Medek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Medek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoubek 2.63 / Medek 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Medek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087594
Koubek2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Medek1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 121 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoubek3wins
AwayMedek7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMedek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoubek50%2 of 4
AwayMedek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koubek4Medek6n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S2Koubek5Medek5n = 10split evenly
S3Koubek5Medek5n = 10split evenly
S4Koubek3Medek7n = 10Medek took 7 of 10
S5Koubek2Medek3n = 5Medek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoubekMedekK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.143.0−5.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoubekMedekBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 373 vs 304 / 52651.7%57.8%193 / 373 vs 304 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekKoubek 2.63/Medek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Medek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 16:00V. Koubek—114113143J. Medek—711911122
WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek—11116113J. Medek—681141
LAug 25 · 15:30V. Koubek—111091122J. Medek—712118113
LAug 11 · 18:30V. Koubek—41161152J. Medek—115112113
WJun 23 · 16:30V. Koubek—911128113J. Medek—116101172
LJun 2 · 15:30V. Koubek—113631J. Medek—81111113
LMay 31 · 20:00V. Koubek—8101171J. Medek—11126113
LMay 24 · 16:30V. Koubek—411671J. Medek—11611113
LMay 19 · 15:30V. Koubek—71111442J. Medek—119611113
LMay 17 · 17:28V. Koubek—651851J. Medek—111116113
V. Koubek10
LSep 7 · 18:00J. Vales1.67611117123V. Koubek2.10116711102WSep 7 · 17:29V. Koubek3.001112113J. Zajicek1.3691080WSep 7 · 16:00J. Medek1.44711911122V. Koubek2.63114113143WSep 7 · 15:00J. Zajicek1.4411127882V. Koubek2.639101111113WSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123
J. Medek10
WSep 7 · 18:30J. Medek1.7391111113J. Zajicek2.00116951WSep 7 · 16:59J. Medek1.4491111113J. Vales2.63116871LSep 7 · 16:00J. Medek1.44711911122V. Koubek2.63114113143WSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek1.83111171172J. Zajicek1.83139115113WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750LSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121LSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141
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