TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087554
Played Sep 7Finished
Jan Zajicek
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118119––––
Jakub Vales
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeJan Zajicek to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Zajicek above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jan Zajicek at 67.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jan Zajicek 20–7 Jakub Vales Jakub Vales has won 7 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Zajicek beat Vales 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zajicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-7 in 27
Zajicek
Correct
gap of 13 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zajicek 1845 vs Vales 1881
Vales
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zajicek 40% vs Vales 20%
Zajicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zajicek 50% vs Vales 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zajicek -2 · Vales +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Zajicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZajicek 1.40 / Vales 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Zajicek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087554
Zajicek1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 105 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it85% 83 of 98
Vales2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 36 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZajicek7wins
AwayVales3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZajicek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZajicek80%4 of 5
AwayVales40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zajicek5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S2Zajicek7Vales3n = 10Zajicek took 7 of 10
S3Zajicek6Vales4n = 10Zajicek took 6 of 10
S4Zajicek4Vales3n = 7Zajicek took 4 of 7
S5Zajicek2Vales1n = 3Zajicek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZajicekValesZ − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.335.5+2.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZajicekValesBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 655 vs 282 / 51653%54.7%347 / 655 vs 282 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZajicekZajicek 1.40/Vales 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Zajicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zajicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 16:30J. Zajicek—11119133J. Vales—3911111
WSep 5 · 15:00J. Zajicek—1211113J. Vales—10370
LSep 5 · 10:30J. Zajicek—74100J. Vales—1111123
WSep 4 · 20:58J. Zajicek—1111113J. Vales—8690
WSep 4 · 18:30J. Zajicek—118611113J. Vales—71111692
WJul 13 · 20:00J. Zajicek—711116123J. Vales—116611102
WJun 26 · 21:30J. Zajicek—91111113J. Vales—117851
LJun 26 · 19:00J. Zajicek—1211391J. Vales—14611113
WJun 18 · 19:00J. Zajicek—21211113J. Vales—1110731
LJun 3 · 20:58J. Zajicek—11613772J. Vales—8111111113
J. Zajicek10
WSep 7 · 20:30V. Koubek2.637390J. Zajicek1.441111113LSep 7 · 18:30J. Medek1.7391111113J. Zajicek2.00116951LSep 7 · 17:29V. Koubek3.001112113J. Zajicek1.3691080WSep 7 · 16:30J. Zajicek1.4011119133J. Vales2.753911111LSep 7 · 15:00J. Zajicek1.4411127882V. Koubek2.639101111113WSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek1.83111171172J. Zajicek1.83139115113LSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690LSep 5 · 16:00L. Jindrak2.6391111113J. Zajicek1.44114941WSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113WSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121
J. Vales10
LSep 7 · 20:00J. Vales2.63641181J. Medek1.4411117113WSep 7 · 18:00J. Vales1.67611117123V. Koubek2.10116711102LSep 7 · 16:59J. Medek1.4491111113J. Vales2.63116871LSep 7 · 16:30J. Zajicek1.4011119133J. Vales2.753911111LSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:30V. Koubek2.2011125113J. Vales1.616101161WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113
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